Our forecast for 2024 industrial production is largely unchanged since our previous update: we now expect growth of 0.5%. This is just under our forecast for GDP growth over the same time, which currently stands at 0.9%. However, the tepid outlook is better than its face value implies given the experience of peer European nations over recent history. Industrial production did not, unlike in Germany, decline in 2023, and so the mild growth over this year is at levels that, while not quite reaching the all-time highs of 2019 and 2007, are fairly average for recent French history.
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