Country Economic Forecasts - Lesotho
Economic output in Q3 2021 offered a flicker of hope that a revival was on the cards. Yet, the momentum was unlikely to have been sustained, and so, we estimate that GDP contracted by 0.5% in 2021. Still, ongoing construction of phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP II) and the Lesotho Lowlands Water Development Project (LLWDP), improved remittance inflows, and higher textile and diamond exports should breathe new life into the economy in 2022. The sanguine trend could continue into 2023 when a utility-scale solar plant is implemented by the private sector and Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) revenues recover. We forecast the economy to grow by 4.0% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. Even so, downside risks remain, while structural impediments, socio-economic hardship, as well as political and policy uncertainty inhibit development potential.
- Lesotho: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
- These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year
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