Country Economic Forecasts - Egypt
Preliminary figures show that real GDP jumped by 4.5% q-o-q in Q3 2021 (+9.8% y-o-y – the highest annual growth rate recorded in the series’ history). We expect the bounce back was supported by a return of Russian tourists following the nation’s decision to lift a six-year ban on direct flights to Egypt. The conflict in Ukraine is crushing hopes that the strong inflow of Russian tourists will continue. Nevertheless, persistent upward surprises regarding Egyptian GDP releases have prompted an upward revision to our estimate for real GDP growth to 7.2% in 2021, from 5.7% in the January forecast round. Furthermore, the economy is now forecast to grow by 4.9% this year, compared with 4.0% in the previous round.
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