Oil prices have made a strong start to 2025, reaching a high of $82pb as the Biden administration placed further sanctions on Russia's oil industry. Prices have traded sideways since and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is weighing on the geopolitical risk premium. The new sanctions put upside risk on our price forecast, but we still expect Brent will average $73pb in 2025. We already included the energy-related executive orders signed by Trump after his inauguration in our baseline.
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