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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 16, 2026
Length 20 Pages
SKU # OFE20872845

Description

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions across key producers, oil market fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with a 2 mbpd surplus weighing on prices while cushioning the market against shocks. Our baseline assumes no supply disruption from Iran—with only a modest near-term risk premium likely—while more material price moves are confined to low-probability escalation scenarios.

Table of Contents

20 Pages
Global: Surplus keeps oil prices grounded despite rising tensions
Oil Overview
Supply stable despite geopolitical risk
Surplus provides resilience to shocks
Geopolitical risk: Iran
Supply outlook
Demand outlook
Gas Overview
Natural gas winter
European gas (TTF)
US gas (Henry Hub)
Iron and Steel Overview
Bearish outlook for iron ore prices
Trade policy main steel price determinant
Base Metals Overview
Price forecasts revised higher
Precious Metals Overview
Gold hits fresh highs
Silver outpaces gold on speculative drive
Battery Metals Overview
Price recovery expected to be gradual
Agricultural Commodities Overview
USDA takes bearish stance
Housing recovery to lift lumber prices
Risks
US tariffs
Middle East tensions
Russia-Ukraine war
Macroeconomic risks
Chinese stockpiling
Resource nationalism

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