Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Fears of a substantial escalation in the Middle East last week prompted the largest swing in the oil price in over a year. We view the price impact as transitory, although the conflict remains an upside risk. Overall, we have downgraded our Brent forecast for 2025 to US$72.60/bl as a review of our supply forecasts has resulted in our forecast market balance shifting from a deficit to a surplus in 2025. Weak demand persists in the US and China ensuring a bearish market next year.
- Global: Middle East escalation presents upside risks
- Oil Overview
- The price spike from the escalation in the Middle East will likely prove temporary
- Finally, OPEC+ will unwind its supply cuts
- Oil demand from the major economies remains weak
- Market dynamics will likely switch from a deficit to a surplus next year
- Gas Overview
- We're bullish on the US and European natural gas prices
- Iron & Steel Overview
- Fade the iron ore price rally
- Steel prices start to bottom out
- Base Metals Overview
- Base metal prices rally on China hopes
- Precious Metals Overview
- Gold set to consolidate
- Silver and PGMs volatility persists
- Battery Metals Overview
- Battery metals markets are oversupplied
- Agricultural Commodities Overview
- We've cut our 2025 price forecasts
- Risks
- Middle East conflict
- Second Trump presidency
- Russia-Ukraine war
- Macroeconomic risks
- Resource nationalism
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