Oil & Gas Industry in India 2024 - 2028

Oil & Gas Industry in India 2024 - 2028

Market Insights:

In FY 2023, the country's reliance on imports rose to 87.3%, up from 85.5% in FY 2022. The cumulative index for crude oil production decreased by 0.3% from April to December 2023 compared to the corresponding period the previous year. According to the recent Industry Consumption Review Report by the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India's petroleum product consumption in December 2023 reached 20.1 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT), indicating a 2.6% increase from December 2022 and a 5.9% rise from pre-pandemic levels in December 2019.Crude imports experienced a 9.4% volume increase, reaching 232.4 million metric tonnes in FY 2023. In March 2023, domestic refiners processed 3% more crude compared to the same month in 2016. The demand for petroleum products in FY 2023 grew by 10.2%, primarily fueled by rises in petrol (13.4%), diesel (12%), and aviation turbine fuel (47%) prices. In March, there was a 5% uptick in the usage of petroleum products. During FY 2023, India's natural gas production reached 33,664.24 MMSCM. The growth in domestic gas production and a higher share of LNG imports are expected to be key factors in the increasing gas consumption in India. Last month, 2980 billion m3 of natural gas was produced, marking a 4% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. From April to January, a total of 28.84 billion m3 of natural gas was produced, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.1%. In FY 2023, domestic gas production witnessed a growth of 1.3%.

Market Influencers:

Market drivers:

The substantial expansion of the Indian GDP and population has been a crucial factor in propelling the demand for oil and gas in the country. In 2023, the Indian economy exhibited impressive performance, closing the year with a GDP of INR 308.02 trillion, a GDP per capita of INR 215,533, and an anticipated GDP growth rate of 6.3%, surpassing the global average of 2.9%. Over the recent years, the transportation sector has experienced remarkable expansion and emerged as one of the foremost consumers of oil and gas in India. The total energy consumption in the transportation industry is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of approximately 4% until 2040. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy consumption in the transportation sector is expected to reach 10.9 quadrillion Btu in 2040, marking a significant increase from 3.3 quadrillion Btu in 2012. India is expected to see a doubling in oil demand, reaching 11 million barrels per day by 2045. The projection for diesel demand indicates a twofold increase to 163 million tonnes by FY 2030. The consumption of natural gas is anticipated to grow by 25 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 9% until 2024. In February 2023, India witnessed a surge in oil demand to a 24-year high, attributed to increased industrial activity, marking the 15th consecutive year-on-year rise in demand.

Market Challenges:

State-owned companies primarily dominate the oil and gas industry in India. Despite being one of the largest consumers in the global oil and gas sector, the Indian market lacks substantial participation from private international players. Multinational corporations (MNCs) have not displayed substantial interest in initiating exploration and production activities in India, despite the considerable demand. The extended operationalization procedures have dissuaded private players from expanding their presence in the Indian market.To sustain and enhance output, mature wells in India necessitate the implementation of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) technologies. Currently, the oil and gas sector in India falls behind other developed and developing nations in terms of adopting advanced technologies.