Thailand Oil and Gas Downstream Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

Thailand Oil and Gas Downstream Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

The Thailand Oil and Gas Downstream is expected to reach an installed refining capacity of 1,267 thousand barrels per day by the end of this year and is projected to register a CAGR of over 1.58% during the forecast period (2022-2027).

The market was negatively impacted by COVID-19 in 2020. Presently the market has now reached pre-pandemic levels.

Key Highlights

• Over the medium term, With the growing demand for various refined products, the country is focused on developing its refinery capacity which, in turn, is expected to be the primary driving factor for the market.​
• On the other hand, However, with the shifting trend towards cleaner alternatives such as increasing adoption of electric vehicles are expected to hinder the demand for refined products from end-user industries which is expected to restraint the market’s growth.​
• Nevertheless, Gas fields have been discovered in the Andaman Sea, and this has increased the optimism to be able to reduce the dependence on imported gas and reduce the cost of natural gas transportation. It is thereby creating an opportunity for the players in the sector.

Key Market TrendsOil Refining Capacity to Witness Growth

• Thailand produces a large share of the petroleum it consumes, but the country still relies on imports to meet the increasing demand. Demand for gasoline stood above 30 million liters a day in 2020, while fuel (diesel and gasoline) consumption took a plunge of 4.4% in the first ten months of 2021 to a daily average of 131 million liters the same level as before COVID-19 hit Thailand in 2020 according to Department of Energy Business, Thailand.
• The refinery sector of Thailand is the second largest in the Southeast Asia region in refining capacity and throughput, just after Singapore.​ In Thailand, the refineries' capacity has remained relatively stable during the 2016 – 2019 period, at around 1,234,500 barrels per day and has increased to 1,244,500 barrels per day in 2021. ​
• On the other hand, the refinery throughput has been increasing in recent years. The country currently has six refinery complexes, the majority of which are owned partially or fully by the country’s national oil and gas conglomerate PTT.​
• The country has been actively trying to increase its refining capacity in order to meet its growing domestic and regional demand. ​For instance, the expansion project of Thai Oil’s Sriracha refinery, a part of the company’s Clean Fuel Project (CFP), is expected to have a total capacity of 400,000 b/d when completed in the end of 2023. ​
• Thailand's oil refining capacity is expected to grow slightly in the forecast period due to the expansion of refineries and an increase in the demand for refined oil.

Decreasing Oil and Gas Production to Restrain the Market

• Thailand is trying to transform into “Thailand 4.0” whose industries transition to technological advances and high-level services, the government has designated "next-generation automotive" development among the top targeted industries and provided supports for EV-related business in an effort to transform from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle to EV production hub in the Southeast Asia region. ​
• The electric vehicle (EV) industry is gaining interests in Thailand, supported by favorable government policies to push the EV market. For example, the government of Thailand rolled out EV incentive schemes i.e., tax benefits and subsidy systems to propel the development of the EV market in the country. ​
• The National Electric Vehicles Policy Committee in 2020 introduced a roadmap which lays out a framework for Thailand’s EV development from 2021-2035 with the aim of transforming the country’s well-established automotive supply chain for the production of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and building the technological capacity for modern mobility. The roadmap covers not only EV production and usage, but also development plans for battery manufacturing and supplies, supporting infrastructure, including charging stations and power grid management, and the development of related safety standards and regulations to enable comprehensive and integrated implementation. Note that EVs in the masterplan also cover various types of vehicles including motorcycles, tricycles, buses, trucks and ferry boats.​
• Also, the Excise Department of Thailand has been applying an excise tax rate of 0% during 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2022 and 2% during 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2025, to electric powered passenger vehicles with seating not exceeding 10 seats which are promoted by the Board of Investment (BOI).
• With an increase in number of EVs, the country is also witnessing a surge in the number of charging stations with a rising investments from both the public and private sectors. According to EVAT, the country had over 664 charging stations with 2,224 chargers from 10 developers nationwide in June 2021. By 2036, the Thai government aims to have 690 charging stations and 1.2 million electric vehicles nationwide.​
• The transportation sector plays a vital role in Thailand downstream oil and gas economy. Therefore, the adoption of EVs is expected to hamper the growth of the downstream oil and gas market in Thailand.​

Competitive Landscape

The Thailand Oil and Gas Downstream market is partially consolidated in nature. Some of the major players in the market (in no particular order) include Exxon Mobil Corporation, PTT Public Company Limited, Thai Oil PCL, IRPC PCL, and Bangchak Petroleum Public Company among others.

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• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
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