Solar Energy in Germany Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

Solar Energy in Germany Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

The Germany Solar Energy Market size is expected to grow from 75.50 gigawatt in 2023 to 137.88 gigawatt by 2028, at a CAGR of 12.80% during the forecast period (2023-2028).

In 2020, COVID-19 negatively impacted the market. Presently, the market has reached pre-pandemic levels.

Key Highlights

• Over the next few years, the growth of the market is likely to be driven by government policies that encourage the use of renewable energy sources.
• On the other hand, the unfavorable climate hinders market growth, as Germany is not a very sun-drenched country.
• Nevertheless, the new German government has blueprints to phase out nuclear and coal power from the electricity mix forever by 2030. Three of the six remaining nuclear reactors have already been shut down for 2021. Coal-fired power production also decreased in the last decade, and the new government still has plans to completely do away with coal power production to decarbonize all energy applications. The measures present a tremendous opportunity for renewables.

Germany Solar Energy Market Trends

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Expected to Dominate the Market

• Solar PV projects in the country have been growing steadily, and the cost of starting a project is going down over time. According to the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, the total installed power capacity of ground-mounted, rooftop (south), and rooftop (east-west) solar PV systems in Germany was about 66 GW in 2022.
• The new government wants to increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix to around 80% by 2030. This is expected to increase capacity even more since many upcoming solar projects will add more solar power capacity to the nation's grid.
• In May 2022, the Bundesnetzagentur, Germany's Federal Network Agency, finished the third rooftop PV tender with an average price of USD 0.09/kWh. The agency looked at 171 bids that added up to 212 MW and chose 163 projects that added up to 204 MW. The final prices ranged between EUR 0.07/kWh and EUR 0.0891/kWh. The second rooftop PV tender was concluded in January 2022, and the agency reviewed 209 bids with a total capacity of 233 MW, of which 136 projects were selected, totaling 154 MW. The final prices ranged between USD 0.06/kWh and USD 0.0828/kWh. The final average price was USD 0.07.
• In April 2022, Germany's Federal Network Agency said it had chosen 201 solar auction proposals with a total output of 1.084 GW. This was up from July 2021, when 510.34 MW were selected. The bids in the round ranged from USD 0.04 to USD 0.058 per kWh. The volume-weighted average price stood at USD 0.057 per kWh, up from USD 0.050 per kWh in the previous round.
• According to International Renewable Energy Agency, At the end of 2022, the country had a total solar photovoltaic capacity of 66.55 GW, a rise of 12% compared to 2021.
• Based on the abovementioned factors, the solar PV segment will likely be the most essential part of the German solar energy market over the next few years.

Government Policies Expected to Drive the Market

• Germany's government passed several laws to encourage using renewable energy sources. As a result, solar energy now makes up a large part of the country's power generation mix. As of 2022, the share of solar power in net electricity production was around 12%. According to IRENA, the total installed solar energy was 66.55 GW in 2022.
• The Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action passed many new laws to achieve an increased share of renewable power. The Renewable Energy Act (EEG), passed to make solar and wind power the most crucial electricity sources shortly, brought new reforms in 2021.
• Under the Renewable Energy Act of 2021, solar PV installations on rooftops of over 750 kilowatt-peak (kWp) are eligible to participate in tenders, while all systems between 300 and 750 kW are offered the choice of either participating in a tender or taking advantage of fixed feed-in tariffs and consuming part of their electricity themselves. The latter will only receive feed-in payments for 50 percent of their electricity.
• According to the latest data released by the Federal Network Agency Bundesnetzagentur, Germany installed 7.18 GW of solar capacity in 2022, a growth of 35.47% year-over-year (YoY) from 5.3 GW installed last year. In 2022, solar PV accounted for 10.4 % of Germany's gross electricity generation.
• Germany, the fastest-growing market for rooftop solar PV in Europe, adopted the "SolarCity Master Plan" to expand the deployment of solar panels across rooftops to supply around 25% of electricity needs with solar power by 2050. It included various recommendations to kickstart solar expansion in Berlin, including incentives and education for property owners and removing regulatory barriers for photovoltaic systems. Additionally, in June 2021, the Berlin House of Representatives passed the Berlin Solar Act, which requires the installation of solar PV systems on all new buildings in Berlin starting in 2023.
• Because of these changes, government policies will likely be the most critical force in the German solar energy market.

Germany Solar Energy Industry Overview

The German solar energy market is moderately fragmented. Some of the major players in the market (in no particular order) include IBC Solar AG, Centrotherm International AG, SunPower Corporation, Schott Solar AG, and Hanwha Corporation.

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