Poland Renewable Energy - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts 2020 - 2029

Poland Renewable Energy - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts 2020 - 2029

The Poland Renewable Energy Market size is estimated at 25.08 gigawatt in 2024, and is expected to reach 49.38 gigawatt by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 14.51% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

In 2020, the sector witnessed a frequent disturbance in the supply chain. With COVID-19 spread, the country-imposed lockdown and restrictions in several phases have affected the country's renewable energy business. Apart from imported parts or components, the domestic players in Poland rely on the imported raw materials used to manufacture solar panels, wind turbines, CHP plants, etc. Raw materials such as silicon, aluminum, steel, and glass fibers are majorly imported from countries like China, the United States, and other European countries like Germany and Belgium. With COVID-19 restrictions, raw material supply from these countries to the country witnessed a significant drop, thus adversely affecting solar panel, CHP plant, and wind turbine manufacturers. The primary driver of the market includes government policies that emphasize switching its electricity generation from coal to renewable fuels. Uses of renewable energy ensure energy diversification, and it helps to meet its increasing energy demand from cleaner sources. However, increasing penetration of natural gas for power generation in the country is expected to hinder the growth of the market during the forecast period.

Key Highlights

• Solar energy deployment is expected to be the fastest-growing segment in the Polish renewable energy market during the forecast period.
• With the intention of increasing its renewable energy share in the energy mix, Poland has extended plans up to 2030. Moreover, Poland possesses the significant industrial potential to develop the offshore wind energy sector. Thus, development in the offshore wind sector and continuous effort to meet its target by 2030 are expected to create an opportunity for the market in the near future.
• Favorable government policies for renewable energy deployment are expected to drive the market during the forecast period.

Poland Renewable Energy Market Trends

Solar Energy Expected to be the Fastest-growing Segment

• Solar is one of the country's most promising renewable energy sources, and since 2011, it has grown substantially. From a mere 2 MW of solar capacity in 2011, the country has undergone various dynamic changes that took the overall solar capacity of the country to 11.16 GW as of this year.
• The considerable growth of the installed solar PV capacity in the country has been a result of supportive government policies and renewable energy auctions for both small-scale solar PV (less than 1 MW) and large-scale solar farms (greater than 1 MW). Under the "Energy Policy of Poland until 2040", the government is aiming at 20 GW of solar capacity by that year, overtaking wind as the largest renewable energy source.
• Although the government had set a target of 7.8 GW of solar capacity by 2030 under the National Plan for Energy and Climate, Poland's Institute for Renewable Energy (IEO) predicts to achieve the target by 2025. The growth in solar PV capacity is expected to continue the same trend as registered in 2021 and 2022, with an even higher annual installed capacity in the upcoming years.
• One of the main drivers for the increase in solar PV installed capacity is home installations, which have been incentivized by a popular subsidy program introduced by the government in 2019. Moreover, according to SolarPower Europe, by August 2022, Poland had over 1.1 million micro-installations of under 50 kW.
• Historically, the small-scale solar PV segment has dominated the solar energy market in Poland. However, the number of larger solar facilities above 1 MW in the country increased by 1.6 GW of capacity last year. The share of large-scale solar projects is expected to increase during the forecast period, rising to almost 50% of the total installed capacity in the latter part of the forecast period.
• Therefore, owing to the above points, solar energy is expected to be the fastest-growing segment during the forecast period.

Favorable Government Policies Expected to Drive the Market Demand

• Poland is endowed with abundant solar energy resources, boasting irradiation of approximately 1000kwh/m2. Technological advancements, clubbed with the economy of scale in solar module manufacturing, have fostered the price reduction of solar modules. Furthermore, the economic viability of solar energy improved remarkably. Poland is poised to witness growth in the solar energy market in the near future, primarily driven by technological advancements and policy-level support from the government.
• To foster the deployment of solar energy, in November 2022, the government announced to increase the size of the state subsidies. The government will increase the size of the state subsidies available to households for the installation of solar panels and energy storage. the subsidy for photovoltaic installations to 6,000 zloty (EUR 1,275) and for energy storage to 15,000 zloty (EUR 3,187).
• Moreover, the government passed the National Energy Policy with a target to increase the renewable energy share in electricity to 27% by 2030. Such policies are expected to foster the country's renewable energy market growth during the forecast period.
• According to International Renewable Energy Agency, in 2022, total renwable energy installed capacity accounted for 21.24 GW with an annual growth rate of 29 % as compared to last year. With the favorable government policies and significant growth rate percentage, the renewable energy capacity of poland is expected to grow in the forecast period.
• In line with the new targets, Poland's installed offshore wind capacity is planned to reach 5.9 GW by 2030 and up to 11 GW by 2040. Meanwhile, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is set to increase between 5 GW and 7 GW in 2030 and 10 GW-16 GW in 2040. The country has tremendous potential for wind energy capacity.
• Hence, high renewable targets set by the government and the introduction of the new policies in Poland are expected to drive the market in the country during the forecast period.

Poland Renewable Energy Industry Overview

The Polish renewable energy market is moderately fragmented. Some of the key players in the market (not in a particular order) include PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA, Akuo Energy SAS, Engie SA, Dalkia Polska, and SGS SA.

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