Poland Freight and Logistics Market - Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

Poland Freight and Logistics Market - Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

The Polish freight and logistics market is expected to record a CAGR of more than 4.5% during the forecast period, 2022-2027. The increasing consumption in the country, growth of the e-commerce sector, and a rising number of retail outlets are expected to lead to the growth of the Polish logistics market in the upcoming years.

As in previous years, the positive development of the Polish logistics market continued in 2021. Despite disruption connected with the COVID-19 pandemic, the market remained stable. The rapidly growing supply, primarily due to speculative investments, has increased by almost 40% over the last two years. New technologies are continuously deployed across the Polish freight and logistics sector, changing the logistics landscape.

One of the key features in developing transport in Poland is its geographical location. Poland lies in Central Europe on the border of the European Union. It has access to the sea and is a place where the most important European transit routes intersect. For many years, Poland has been investing enormous financial resources into developing road, rail, and air infrastructure.

With a strong investment in the industrial real estate warehousing segment, the market is also experiencing favorable growth. Investment volume has been growing every year. The growth in warehousing has been a result of rapid e-commerce growth in the country. With government support and increasing investment in the freight and logistics sector, Poland is prepared to observe strong growth.

The exponential growth of online retail has resulted in a record amount of space being leased on a short-term basis. For example, in 2020, short-term leases covered 32,600 sq.m of space in Poland. Since many online stores do not know exactly how their needs will change, they can also be tricky customers for bigger logistics parks that traditionally expect long lease terms from their customers. In the next years, it is expected that large logistics parks to become increasingly open to working with on-demand cloud-based solution providers.

Online stores need three times more storage space than traditional retail chains. With the Polish online trade market growing 20% annually, the growth in space is also expected to continue. At the end of Q4 2020, there was approximately 1.42 million sq. m of vacant warehouse space, accounting for 6.8% of Poland’s total stock. Strong demand growth in the fourth quarter and relatively low new supply compared to previous quarters pushed vacancies down by 298,000 sq. m.

Poland is an attractive market for the development of e-commerce, a young industry, which is growing fast. The number of online purchases reached an all-time record in Poland last year. This was due to the COVID-19 lockdowns. Nevertheless, Poland is still one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in Europe. In 2020, online spending reached EUR 10 billion on the main product categories, i.e., clothing, consumer electronics, furniture, food, and toys. This was an increase of about 25% compared to 2019. Given Poland’s strategic location at the crossroads of major transport routes, further improvements to its transport infrastructure, and the growth of urban and cross-border logistics, the market outlook for 2022 remains positive.

The rapid growth of e-commerce is largely driven by the expansion of omnichannel and the rising penetration rate of online retailing (share of total sales). Retailers are focusing on customer experience to enable convenient and quick shopping on any device. In response to customers’ needs, they are already developing additional mobile sales channels. This is expected to affect return logistics and improve processing times considerably. With further technological advancements and new sales channels gaining importance, e-commerce tenants will force the warehouse market to change. With warehousing stock for e-commerce growing, it is clear that the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Poland will drive the logistics market. During the observed period, the number of internet users in Poland increased and reached 28.8 million in 2021.

The competitive landscape of the Polish freight and logistics market shows high levels of fragmentation. Some of the major players in the market are PKP Cargo, DPD Group, LOTOS, DHL, Kuehne + Nagel, FedEx, and DB Schenker. The major competition is observed in Poland's road freight and warehousing segment.

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support