POLAND FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS MARKET - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

POLAND FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS MARKET - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

The Polish freight and logistics market is expected to witness a CAGR of more than 4% during the forecasted period of 2020-2025, with the road freight segment accounting for the highest growth. Poland continues to devote sizeable resources to the development of its transportation industry.

Key Highlights

• The National Directorate for Roads and Highways (GDDKiA), the Polish Railway PKP S.A., the Polish Railway Networks (PKP-PLK), Ministry of Investment and Economic Development, Ministry of Infrastructure, and Ministry of Maritime Economy and Inland Waterways are all responsible for nation-wide or regional projects. Besides, local governments are responsible for infrastructure projects for their communities.
• Many highway, railway, and inland-waterway projects are eligible for EU funding. While Polish resources are required as base funding, these EU funds are catalysts for making each project a reality.
• It is important to note that the current EU budget, due to last until 2020, is likely the last one to feature such abundant resources for the development of transportation infrastructure. Therefore, Poland is introducing important changes to the regulatory framework governing the distribution of these funds, intending to enhance infrastructure investments. With a strong investment in the industrial real estate warehousing segment, the market is also experiencing favorable growth. Investment volume has been growing every year, starting from 2015, when it was a mere 221 million EUR of transactions.
• The figure for 2016 was almost EUR 770 million and EUR 900 million in 2017. In 2018, up to 90 parks with almost 3.2 million sq m of total space changed hands, representing over 20% of total existing stock in Poland. The value of industrial investment transactions reached a historical high of 1.84 billion EUR, with a significant proportion accounted for by large portfolio transactions. The growth in warehousing has been a result of rapid e-commerce growth in the country. With government support and increasing investment in the freight and logistics sector, Poland is prepared to observe strong growth.
• oads and Highways (GDDKiA), the Polish Railway PKP S.A., the Polish Railway Networks (PKP-PLK), Ministry of Investment and Economic Development, Ministry of Infrastructure, and Ministry of Maritime Economy and Inland Waterways are all responsible for nation-wide or regional projects. Besides, local governments are responsible for infrastructure projects for their communities. Many highway, railway, and inland-waterway projects are eligible for EU funding. While Polish resources are required as base funding, these EU funds are catalysts for making each project a reality.
• It is important to note that the current EU budget, due to last until 2020, is likely the last one to feature such abundant resources for the development of transportation infrastructure. Therefore, Poland is introducing important changes to the regulatory framework governing the distribution of these funds, intending to enhance infrastructure investments. With strong investment in the industrial real estate warehousing segment also experienced strong favorable growth. Investment volume has been growing every year since 2015 when it was a mere 221 million EUR of transactions.
• The figure for 2016 was almost 770 million EUR and 900 million EUR in 2017. In 2018, up to 90 parks with almost 3.2 million sq m of total space changed hands, representing over 20% of total existing stock in Poland. The value of industrial investment transactions reached a historically high 1.84 billion EUR, with a significant proportion accounted for by large portfolio transactions. The growth in warehousing has been a result of rapid e-commerce growth in the country. With government support and increasing investment in the freight and logistics sector, Poland is prepared to observe strong growth.

Key Market TrendsRapid Growth of Road Freight Segment

The road freight transport sector plays a key role in the economy. In terms of gross value added, both the Polish economy and the entire EU-28 economy is characterized by a high share of services. Over the last decade, the structure of the share of services, industry, and agriculture in the total value added in Poland has not changed significantly. However, over the period one can observe an increase in gross value added generated by the road transport sector within the services sector. In 2008-2016, at the EU-28 level, the added value generated by the sector grew by 1.7% annually on average, and in Poland by 6.8%.

In Poland, the total added value of the transport and logistics sector in 2017 amounted to 6.6% of the total added value generated in the economy and 6.0% of GDP. The increase in the value-added created by the road transport sector in Poland and the EU is higher than the increase in the total value-added created in the economy, which at the same time (2008-2016) amounted to an annual average of 4.9% in Poland and 1.6% in Europe. Also as per estimates during the 2018-2022 period road freight segment is expected to grow at a rate of 22.8%. Road transport, which currently accounts for more than 50% of all transport performance (ton-kilometers) in the EU-28, will remain the largest segment of the total transport sector in the coming years, due to its dynamic growth and slower growth in other transport modes.

Strong Ecommerce Growth in Poland Driving Warehousing Segment

At the end of December 2018, Poland’s e-commerce market was worth more than PLN 50 billion, accounting for over 2% of the European e-retailing, but is likely to hit PLN 80 billion in the coming years. The rapid growth of e-commerce is largely being driven by the expansion of omnichannel and the rising penetration rate of online retailing (share of total sales). Retailers are focusing on customer experience to enable convenient and quick shopping on any device. In response to customers’ needs, they are already developing additional mobile sales channels. This is expected to have a considerable effect on return logistics and improving processing times. With further technological advancements and new sales channels gaining in importance, e-commerce tenants will force the warehouse market to change.

The growth of e-commerce shows no sign of abating. As per industry survey in Poland, this sector’s tenants require up to three times more space than traditional retailers. 33% of developers and 60% of logistics operators who took part in the survey indicated that they were working on new e-commerce projects, and a vast majority of developers (82%) confirmed that e-commerce tenants had expanded their warehouse footprints in the last three years. Poland’s total warehouse stock amounts to more than 16 million sq. m, of which nearly 25% is dedicated to e-commerce. Three voivodeships: Łódzkie, Lower Silesia and Silesia account for 56% or more than 2.2 million sq. m of the sector’s stock. With warehousing stock for ecommerce growing, it is clear that the rapid expansion of ecommerce in Poland will drive the warehousing segment.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape of the Polish freight and logistics market shows high levels of fragmentation. Some of the major players in the market are PKP Cargo, DPD Group, LOTOS, DHL, Kuehne + Nagel, FedEx, and DB Schenker, among others. Major competition is observed in the road freight and warehousing segment of Poland.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

Companies Mentioned

FIEGE LOGISTICS SP Z O O
POCZTA POLSKA S A
Hellmann Worldwide Logistics Limited
CEVA Logistics
LOT Polish Airlines
PKP CARGO S A
Kuehne + Nagel International AG
FedEx Corporation
DB Schenker
DSV
AMAZON FULFILLMENT POLAND SP Z O O
LOTOS KOLEJ SP Z O O
PANALPINA
DACHSER
RHENUS LOGISTICS
CEVA LOGISTICS
DHL
GEODIS
GEFCO

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