Low-Emission Vehicle Market - Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

Low-Emission Vehicle Market - Growth, Trends, Covid-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

The Low-emission vehicle's market is expected to witness a CAGR of over 15% during the forecasted period (2020 - 2025)

• The electric vehicle (EV) market witnessed significant growth, due to the need for addressing future energy requirements. The need to attain sustainable transportation plays a significant role in driving electric vehicle demand. The EV market is coming up as an integral part of the automotive industry and represents a pathway toward achieving energy efficiency, along with reduced emission of pollutants and other greenhouse gases. Increasing environmental concerns, coupled with favorable government initiatives, are some of the major factors driving the market growth. Rising energy cost and competition among emerging energy efficiency technologies are also expected to fuel the market growth.
• Sales of new electric cars globally reached the 1 million mark in 2017. This was an increase of about 54% compared to 2016. In 2018, the industry reached the 2 million sales mark. Sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) peaked in some countries, such as Norway, where electric vehicles are being purchased by customers at a higher rate compared to ICE ones. Recovery of ICEs in such scenarios is also difficult, and unless EV growth falters or higher investments are made in stimulus programs, the market is expected to see only a positive growth over the forecast period. As of now, much attention is being given to passenger vehicles for electrification, but this trend is expected to change soon and spread to other class of vehicles also.

The sales of electric vehicles are still majorly driven by the policy environment. The ten leading countries (such as China, United States, Norway, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Canada, and the Netherlands) in electric vehicle adoption have a range of policies in place to promote the sales of electric vehicles. Primary examples of these programs and initiatives are public procurement programs, financial incentives to facilitate the production and acquisition of EVs, and cutting their usage cost (e.g., by offering free parking). A variety of regulatory policies at different administrative levels, such as fuel-economy standards and restrictions on the circulation of vehicles based on emissions performance, are also driving the market.

India, with its FAME and FAME II polices, is providing attractive options for investors as well as manufacturers to set up EV plants in the country, to propel the country toward a faster adoption of green vehicles. Public transportation across many cities and countries is being reviewed, and subsequently through subsidies, Electric busses are replacing ICE busses. For instance, the signatories of the C40 Cities Clean Bus Declaration of Intent have committed to introduce 42,649 low- and zero-emission busses in their fleets by 2020, which is expected to be over 25% of the 164,629 total busses operating in these signatory cities.

With the rapid urbanization, China is determined to reduce the polluting emissions from its road transport vehicles. At the same time, it also intends to reduce the country’s dependence on hydro-carbon imports and support the development of the industrial sector. China is the largest manufacturer and consumer of electric vehicles in the world. The domestic demand is being supported by national sales targets, favorable laws, supportive subsidies, and municipal air-quality targets. During the forecast period, China may also witness the growth in the adoption of electric busses, as more than 30 Chinese cities have made plans to achieve 100% electrified public transit by 2020, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan, and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta, as well as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shaanxi, and Shandong.

China imposed a quota on manufacturers for 100% electric or hybrid vehicles, which must represent at least 10% of total new sales. Additionally, some major cities and provinces are imposing increasingly stringent restrictions. For instance, the city of Beijing only issues 10,000 permits for the registration of combustion-engine vehicles per month to encourage its inhabitants to switch to electric vehicles. These kinds of measures are leading China to formulate a resolute and optimistic prospects for the development of electric vehicles in the country, which is expected to drive the market.

The market for low-emission vehicles is characterized by the presence of both established companies and small start-ups. There are also a large number of regional players currently focusing on specific geographies. BYD is a major player in the market studied, owing to its growing orders for passenger cars and electric busses from domestic and international markets. The company sold 227,152 passenger vehicles in 2018, the highest among all companies in China. BYD also received an order to build 4,473 electric busses for Guangzhou city, under the tender of total 4,810 electric busses. Other major companies are Tesla, Daimler, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford, and Geely Group.

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