India Electric Vehicle Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

India Electric Vehicle Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2022 - 2027)

The Indian electric vehicle market was valued at USD 7,025.56 million in 2021, and it is expected to reach USD 30,414.83 million by 2027, registering a CAGR of 28.93% in terms of revenue during the forecast period (2022-2027).

The impact of COVID-19 on the electric vehicle market was inevitable as it affected almost every other industry in the market. However, the electric vehicle market is witnessing substantial growth owing to the rapidly escalating year-on-year adoption rate of mild-hybrid electric vehicles, favored electric vehicle policies, and improved government initiatives across India. In addition, compared to other segments, electric vehicle demand was less affected during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the long term, Increased demand for fuel-efficient, high-performance, and low-emission vehicles, increasingly strict laws and regulations on vehicle emissions lowering battery costs, and rising fuel costs all contribute to the increased demand for the passenger vehicle market's growth.

E-mobility has sparked interest in both countries for a variety of reasons. Large cities in these countries have implemented green and sustainable policies, including the use of electric vehicles, as a response to traffic congestion and pollution. Moreover, government subsidies and the phasing out of IC vehicles have been the key growth propeller during the medium-term demand forecast.

The Government of India has announced its plans to improve the electricity infrastructure in the country amid the electrification missions of the government. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has been recognized by The Ministry of Power as the central nodal agency (CNA) for the implementation of EV public charging infrastructure across the nation. The other important organization concerned with the implementation of public charges is the Department of Heavy Industry. This is responsible for overseeing the FAME-II program, which provides financial aid for public EV charging infrastructure.

States including Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, Bihar, and Maharashtra are under the spotlight with the highest electric vehicle registration in the last two years. Among these electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers have experienced the highest growth rate in terms of adoption.

Key Market TrendsHybrid Electric Vehicles witnessing major growth

Based on the power source, Hybrid Electric Vehicle is dominating the Indian Electric Vehicle Market in terms of revenue in 2021. The government of India has undertaken multiple initiatives to promote the manufacturing and adoption of electric vehicles in India to reduce emissions pertaining to international conventions and develop e-mobility in the wake of rapid urbanization.

The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) and Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid & Electric Vehicles in India (FAME I and II) helped create the initial interest and exposure for electric mobility. For instance, in phase two of FAME, the government announced an outlay of USD 1.4 billion through 2022.

Stringent government emission norms and the recent rise in crude oil prices will drive the penetration of the hybrid electric vehicle. Many consumers in regions, including South Asia and Africa, worry about infrastructure and range and are hesitant to make the switch to pure electric vehicles. This gap will likely be closed by the hybrid electric vehicle by the end of the year.

OEM and state governments are working together to develop hybrid vehicle technology in India. This has helped India’s hybrid vehicles market gain significant traction during the assessment period. For instance,

• In August 2022, Toyota Motors announced to invest INR 3,600 crores in manufacturing a hybrid vehicle facility in Karnataka at the Bidai facility. Moreover, the investment plan was announced after the State government decided to start production of hybrid vehicles.
• In May 2022, Honda Cars India Limited introduced the Honda City e-HEV in India. The new Honda City: HEV is based on the ZX variation of the fifth-generation City and is the first mainstream vehicle to include Strong Hybrid Electric technology. The City e: HEV will be made in India at HCIL's factory in Tapukara, Rajasthan, another first for the firm.
• In July 2022, the Haryana Government revealed its subsidy rates for hybrid and electric vehicles to be sold in the state. The state's recently adopted EV policy would result in price reductions of up to 6 lakhs for vehicles like the Tata Nexon Prime, Nexon EV Max, and MG ZS EV.

Considering these strong developments and ongoing initiatives by automakers and the government, demand for hybrid electric vehicles in India is expected to show a strong growth rate during the forecast period.

Battery Electric Vehicle also hold notable market share in terms of volume in 2021 and is projected to grow during the forecast period. The Indian government's strict regulations in response to rising levels of vehicular emissions and increased demand for environmentally friendly automobiles are likely to drive market expansion over the forecast period. Along with various schemes, the government announced a battery-swapping policy in the Union Budget 2022–2023, allowing depleted batteries to be switched out for charged ones at specific charging points, increasing the viability of EVs for potential buyers.

Uttar Pradesh is dominating the market

The market for electric vehicles is expected to flourish in Uttar Pradesh because it has the largest consumer base in the nation. Uttar Pradesh is the fourth-largest economy in the nation and accounts for around 8% of its GDP. One of the top five states for manufacturing, Uttar Pradesh has the most MSME businesses with a significant presence in the auto sector.

Around one million EVs are projected to be brought out across all categories by 2024. The policy aims to involve manufacturing units of high-density power storage of a minimum of 5 GWh capacities in the next five years. By 2024, there should be approximately 200,000 slow and fast charging and swapping stations in operation. The capital city Lucknow is one of the ten cities identified for the pilot project of multi-modal electric public transport under the FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles) program of the Indian government.

According to the electric mobility dashboard from the CEEW Centre for Energy Finance (CEEW-CEF), Uttar Pradesh (UP) has become the top state in the nation for the sale of electric vehicles (EVs) in the fiscal year 2020–21. In 2021, the highest number of electric vehicles sold in India were from Uttar Pradesh which held 66,704 of the total unit lead sales coming from electric three-wheelers with a share of 42% of total India sales.

Taking this a step further, the Government of India's aims is supported by this Electric vehicle Manufacturing Policy, which encourages the growth of Uttar Pradesh's eco-friendly auto sector and creates a market for the production of electric vehicles locally. According to the State's Industrial Investment and Employment Promotion Policy (IIEP), the Government of Uttar Pradesh will provide special incentives and concessions to attract investments in the production of electric vehicles, the manufacturing and assembly of EV batteries, and the development of charging and swapping infrastructure for EVs in the state.

Under this strategy, all EV battery manufacturing or assembly facilities will be qualified for incentives and discounts. The state of Uttar Pradesh's government plans to build a 2,000 MWh capacity for EV battery manufacture or assembly in the state, which will eventually lead to the creation of 10,000 new jobs. For short-distance transportation, the state government will promote electric 2-wheeler taxis, and current auto rickshaws will be urged to adopt EV technology.

In addition, it will be aimed at five cities, GB Nagar, Ghaziabad, Lucknow, Kanpur, and Varanasi to attain 100% electric transportation by 2030. These include auto rickshaws, taxis, school buses/vans, etc. EV-3 Wheelers and 4-wheelers Mini Goods Vehicles will be encouraged in GB Nagar, Ghaziabad, Agra, Lucknow, Kanpur, and Varanasi to promote EV adaptability in goods transportation.

Rest of India includes states like Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bihar, Assam, and Jharkhand, which account significant market share. Bihar and Assam, along with Uttar Pradesh, account for over 75% of all electric 3-wheeler sales. Bihar has concentrated on public charging stations because of the state's limited infrastructure. The use of electric rickshaws is supported by this public transit system. The Bihar government now wants to install fast-charging facilities on state and federal roadways every 50 kilometers. The use of paddle rickshaws is widespread in Bihar. By the end of 2022, the government intends to phase out the use of these rickshaws in favor of e-rickshaws.

The Assam government has created the Electric Vehicle Policy of Assam,2021, with the goal of adding two lakh electric vehicles over the following five years. This program aims to hasten the uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) such that by 2026, they will account for 25% of all new vehicle registrations.

Competitive Landscape

The Indian EV market is moderately consolidated with the presence of major players in the market due to cheap and readily available manpower. The startups are also expanding their presence by raising funds from investors and tapping into new and unexplored cities. Companies are investing a tremendous amount in R&D and launching new models to mark their presence in the market. However, a growing partnership between vehicle manufacturers is likely to witness major growth in the market. For instance,

• In September 2022, Hero Electric opened a new research and development center in India. The new R&D center will be the hub of their future product development incorporating the latest and the best technologies in electric two-wheelers.
• In August 2022, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd and Volkswagen AG signed a term sheet on the supply of MEB electric components for Mahindra’s new, purpose-built electric platform INGLO. Through this strategic alliance, both companies will have broader electrification across India.
• In May 2022, Tata Motors signed a strategic memorandum of understanding (MoU) with leading e-commerce companies and logistics service providers Amazon, BigBasket, City Link, DOT, Flipkart, LetsTransport, MoEVing, and Yelo EV. Through this MoU, the company would deliver 39,000 ACE electric vehicles to all the logistics service providers.
• In May 2022, Okinawa Autotech Pvt Ltd signed a partnership with Tacita SRL for the manufacturing of electric scooters and motorcycles in India. The new company will start manufacturing in 2023 and is designated Platform 11.
• In April 2022, Greaves Electric Mobility Pvt Ltd announced a strategic partnership with Mesha Energy Solutions Pvt Ltd, an energy storage technology company based in Bangalore. Through this partnership, the company aims to improve the battery technology for its products across the portfolio and expand its presence.
• In December 2021, TVS Motor Company and BMW Motorrad announced a strategic partnership for the development of electric vehicles in India.

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