US HVAC Equipment Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

US HVAC Equipment Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

The United States HVAC Equipment Market size is estimated at USD 45.46 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 60.14 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 5.76% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

The HVAC equipment market is thriving in the United States, fueled by various factors. Given the vast geographic expanse of the United States, temperatures can swing from extreme cold to intense heat, varying by state, city, and coast. This climatic variability makes HVAC installations essential in residential/commercial spaces. As a result, the pressing need to regulate indoor temperatures, regardless of external weather conditions, bolsters the HVAC industry's growth in the nation.

In the United States, the government is ramping up its building renovation projects to enhance energy efficiency. These energy-efficient upgrades curtail greenhouse gas emissions and lower energy bills for homeowners and businesses. They bolster indoor air quality, underscoring their significance for public health and fostering a conducive environment for market growth.

For example, in June 2024, the US General Services Administration (GSA) Administrator unveiled an investment plan: channeling USD 80 million from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into intelligent building technologies. These technologies aim to cut emissions, boost efficiency, trim costs, and elevate comfort levels across approximately 560 federal buildings.

The growing consumer awareness regarding sustainability and energy efficiency is also driving the country's adoption of smart home technologies, creating a favorable ecosystem for the growth of innovative HVAC systems. For instance, according to the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), the US smart home hardware sales revenue was estimated to reach USD 23.5 billion in 2023, compared to USD 19.70 billion in 2018. Hence, the confluence of such trends is expected to support the studied market's growth during the forecast period.

Factors such as higher energy consumption, especially of legacy/older HVAC systems, and the high cost of replacement and new installation challenge the studied market's growth. The impact of such trends has intensified in recent years owing to the changing geopolitical dynamics between the United States and China, as trade restrictions continue to influence the supply chain and pricing of components/HVAC systems in the region.

Starting in 2023, new regulations mandate that all HVAC systems in the country must achieve a seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) between 14 and 15. Arizona legislators argue that these new mandates further strain an already challenging real estate market. They are advocating for a six-month extension to ease compliance, but this request remains unapproved.

With the introduction of these mandates and the gradual elimination of specific refrigerants in residential air conditioning, the HVAC industry is witnessing a surge in demand for replacement systems that align with the new standards. While these advanced systems promise enhanced energy efficiency and environmental benefits, inflationary pressures and other factors are inflating their costs. Suppliers project a cost increase of up to 20%, translating to steeper prices for homeowners in 2023.

United States HVAC Equipment Market Trends

Residential Sector to be the Largest End User

• In the United States, the residential HVAC segment is set to experience significant growth. This surge is largely attributed to the country's varied climatic conditions, which demand a range of HVAC equipment.
• For example, the World Bank highlights the climatic diversity in the United States, from the tropical warmth of southern Florida and Hawaii to the frigid arctic conditions of Alaska. The continental United States showcases a pronounced temperature gradient, with southern coastal states averaging over 21°C annually, contrasting sharply with the cooler northern regions near the Canadian border. Seasonal temperature swings are notable, with differences reaching up to 50°C in the northern plains between summer and winter.
• The growing concerns over indoor air quality are driving the expansion of the HVAC market in the residential sector. In addition, various regional governments are promoting the adoption of high-efficiency HVAC equipment. They are doing this by enforcing laws to meet energy demands and introducing sales programs that offer air conditioners at discounted prices. By consistently updating the Energy Labelling Program to favor energy-efficient systems, these governments are fostering an environment conducive to the growth of the HVAC market.
• As construction activity rises, the smart home industry is witnessing consolidation. With energy consumption in buildings on the rise, IoT-enabled HVAC systems are gaining traction. These trends are fueling the growth of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning market. The expanding residential construction sector is driving the demand for HVAC installations, catering to diverse needs like space heating, cooling, ventilation, and water heating.
• According to the US Census Bureau, Texas and Florida led the nation in 2023, issuing over 190,000 residential building permits. In contrast, Alaska and Rhode Island lagged behind, issuing the fewest permits of any state. Hence, the growing construction activities, along with the increasing consumer adoption of HVAC in the residential housing segment, are anticipated to drive opportunities in the studied market during the forecast period.

Southern States of the US to Hold Major Market Share

• The southern states of the United States are witnessing a burgeoning market influenced by the region's hot and humid climate, urbanization, and economic growth. With some of the nation's highest temperatures and extended hot seasons, HVAC systems have become indispensable in nearly every Southern home, ensuring consistent demand in the residential market. States such as Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and Georgia show a pronounced reliance on air conditioning systems.
• Texas, home to the nation's second-largest population at approximately 30 million, has seen a consistent uptick in home sales since 2012, culminating in 327,921 sales in 2023. Similarly, Florida, another populous state in the South, recorded 257,697 home sales in 2023, as per state realtor data. Both states are experiencing a significant surge in new home constructions, with Texas notably setting record growth rates. These housing developments are fueling the rising demand for HVAC systems.
• In March 2024, the head of the State Energy Conservation Office (SECO) announced that Texas would apply for USD 690 million in residential energy efficiency rebates. This funding backs two new programs introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act: Home Energy Rebates and Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates.
• The Home Energy Rebates program incentivizes projects like insulation and HVAC upgrades that reduce energy consumption. The rebate amount scales with energy savings: projects achieving a 20-35% reduction can receive up to USD 4,000, while those exceeding 35% can get up to USD 8,000. Such incentives are poised to boost the demand for HVAC systems significantly.
• According to the data provided by the US Census Bureau, in 2023, the Southern United States outpaced all other regions combined in new housing starts. The West followed as the second region, recording approximately 400,800 housing starts in 2021. Notably, the Northeast was the sole US region to see a rise in housing starts in 2022.

United States HVAC Equipment Industry Overview

The US HVAC equipment market features a diverse array of vendors, including industry leaders such as Daikin, Lennox, Trane, Mitsubishi Corporation, Nortek Air, Ingersoll Rand, and Carrier. These companies serve a wide spectrum of end customers. With the growing adoption of HVAC systems across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, there has been a marked uptick in strategic execution plans, primarily driven by a heightened focus on exploring new revenue avenues.

Companies are aligning their strategies with industry peers to navigate the shifting technological and regulatory landscape and broadening their reach through inorganic methods like mergers and acquisitions. This trend is poised to heighten competition among market players in the coming years.

Market vendors are channeling investments into product development, capacity enhancement, and geographical expansion, all in response to the rising acceptance of HVAC technology. Key competitive strategies in play include acquisitions, partnerships with industry players, and the introduction of new products and services.

Given the industry's fragmented nature, partnerships and alliances have surfaced as pivotal competitive strategies. As a result, vendors are increasingly seeking collaborations with technology providers to enhance their integrated service offerings.

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