Germany Domestic Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

Germany Domestic Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

The Germany Domestic Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market size is estimated at USD 22.30 billion in 2023, and is expected to reach USD 31.85 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 7.39% during the forecast period (2023-2028).

Key Highlights

• The pandemic in 2020 marked a year of standstill in Germany. Consumers and companies suffered from restrictions in their usual routines, but one sector that kept the operations running was parcel and courier services. It processed hundreds of millions of orders that came on top of its usual workload. The German courier, express, and parcel (CEP) market soared to new records during the peak COVID-19 period in 2020, including a near-20% rise in B2C deliveries, as the pandemic accelerated underlying growth trends.
• German citizens received significantly fewer parcels last Christmas than industry experts had expected. In November and December 2022, around 395 million parcels were delivered to private individuals in Germany, 20 million fewer than forecast. Christmas is the most important time of the year for parcel companies. Sales promotions such as Black Friday at the end of November boost consumption, and the closer Christmas Eve gets the more intensively many consumers search for gifts on the Internet. Package volumes are correspondingly high. After strong growth years in Corona times, the parcel industry took a breather, so to speak, last Christmas season. In the 2021 Christmas business, there had been 440 million shipments - much more than before. The 395 million in the 2022 Christmas business is still a significantly higher level than pre-pandemic: in November and December 2019, 366 million items had been sent to private individuals in Germany.
• Postal service providers in Germany are challenged to transport and deliver letters and parcels with fewer emissions in the future. This will require a fundamental restructuring of transport and delivery networks. Players in the market are integrating electric vehicles into their fleets to reduce the emissions from their operations. For instance, in December 2022 Volvo Trucks and Deutsche Post DHL Group signed a cooperation agreement to accelerate the shift to zero exhaust emission vehicles. DHL intends to intensify its transition to heavy electric trucks by deploying a total of 44 new electric Volvo trucks on routes in Europe. The parcel service provider GLS Germany is currently testing parcel delivery by rail as part of its sustainability strategy “Climate Protect”. In a pilot project running until the end of January, up to 1,000 parcels a day will be sent by train from Nuremberg to Hanover. Other players in the market are also undertaking similar initiatives. In October 2022, DPD Germany and nebenan.de launched "Parcel neighbours" cooperation for reliable and sustainable deliveries. DPD parcel consignees can now find their preferred neighbor on nebenan.de and ask directly whether the person involved can take delivery of a parcel that is on its way. With just a few clicks parcel consignees can now even reach neighbors who don't live in their own buildings. Another advantage of the cooperation is more successful first-time deliveries, and consequently the reduction of environmentally harmful CO2 emissions.
• As the economy is currently back to an upward trend in general, the expectations for the courier, express, and parcel business for the future are positive. If the trend continues as expected, considering a further increase in e-commerce, and backed by estimates of German economic research institutes and relevant companies, a total of 5.7 billion shipments will be delivered in 2025.

Germany Courier Express & Parcel Market Trends

E-commerce is Driving the CEP Market Growth

The German e-commerce sector was unable to continue the high sales figures of the previous year in 2022, data from the Association for E-commerce and distance selling (bevh) suggests. Gross sales of goods in e-commerce, not adjusted for inflation, fell by 8.8% to EUR 90.4 billion (USD 97.13 billion) in 2022, compared to EUR 99.1 billion (USD 106.48 billion) in the previous year. The overall industry revenue was EUR 101.7 billion (USD 109.28 billion) in 2022 compared to EUR 107.1 billion (USD 115.08 billion) in 2021. However, compared to pre-Covid sales figures (2019), online sales of goods were still 24.5% higher in 2022. According to bevh, this is a special, economic development fact that the number of active customers remains unchanged, but they are buying less often and for smaller amounts. The bevh expects that the benefits of digital shopping, such as service, transparency, and availability, will contribute to e-commerce growing slightly stronger than the overall market again in 2023 with an expected growth rate of 4.8% for goods.

With the German e-commerce industry expected to record strong growth from the long-term perspective, global e-commerce investors are expected to pump millions of euros into the country. In June 2022, Clearco, an e-commerce investor from Canada, announced its launch in Germany. The firm has pledged EUR 500 million (USD 537.25 million) to local online businesses. This investment in the domestic e-commerce market will continue to drive the industry growth over the next three to four years. The firm has funded over 7,000 e-commerce businesses and has invested over EUR 3 billion (USD 3.22 billion) as of June 2022 globally. In 2022, the firm also launched in Ireland, announcing an investment of EUR 100 million (USD 107.45 million) in the local digital economy. This investment, along with funding from other global private equity and venture capital firms in Germany over the subsequent three to four years, is expected to drive the industry's growth. The UK is currently the leader in eCommerce in Europe, even after Brexit. However, Germany is expected to take over that place by 2025.This tremendous growth of eCommerce will drive the CEP market in Germany.

Growth in Parcel Volumes Fueling the Market Growth

The parcel market in Germany is growing at a tremendous pace. More than four billion parcels are now sent in Germany every year. In the German courier, express, and parcel delivery sectors, including B2B, B2C, and C2C shipments, the development of total shipping volumes has been on a constant upward trend for years. One of the main factors strengthening the German parcel market is the presence of numerous small and medium-sized businesses. In Germany, in 2021, over 12,000 companies were active in the CEP market, with the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia having the highest concentration of firms. For some years now, there has been a clear shift in the market, with the B2B sector treading water and market growth coming from the B2C sector, main thanks to e-commerce. Last Mile Experts now estimates that B2C parcels represent more than 60% of the total market. Deutsche Post DHL is transporting more and more packages: in 2021 there were 1.8 billion parcels transported in Germany, compared to 1.6 billion in 2020. The higher number of shipments is mainly due to the flourishing online trade.

Parcel shipments are increasing every year because of growing online trade. Over the past 10 years, year-on-year shipment volume growth had ranged between 4-7%. The growth saw an especially rise sharp in 2020, with shipping volumes increasing by a double-digit year-on-year rate for the first time in 20 years, as a BIEK study shows. Throughout that year, in fact, parcel shipments exceeded four billion shipments, reaching 4.5 billion in 2021. Shipping volumes are expected to increase by a year-on-year rate of another 8% in 2023 and reach 5.7 billion shipments by 2025. Considering this, three German rail associations even submitted proposals to increase rail transportation of parcels in the country. The three associations involved are the Allianz pro-Schiene, the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (BIEK), and the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV). The proposals were presented to the German Ministry of Transport, Oliver Luksic. The associations highlight the necessity of improving capacity in the corridors, accelerating rail infrastructure expansion, and upgrading the urban rail infrastructure. These increasing parcel volumes will contribute to the CEP market growth in Germany.

Germany Courier Express & Parcel Industry Overview

The domestic CEP market in Germany is fragmented considering that there are several companies operating in the market with major players not holding most of the market share. Domestic deliveries are dominated by companies like DHL, Hermes, DPD, GLS, and UPS. Companies like DHL and Hermes, which are German companies, have a strong market presence in the country and also a strong international presence. The delivery and third-party parcel companies are investing in technology to gain an edge and scale up their services in the country. After the pandemic, the volume of online deliveries has increased significantly, and delivery companies are trying to capitalize on this opportunity.

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