Brazil Cane Sugar - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)

Brazil Cane Sugar Market Analysis

The Brazil cane sugar market is expected to grow from USD 8.45 billion in 2025 to USD 8.74 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 10.33 billion by 2031 at 3.40% CAGR over 2026-2031. The steady headline growth hides an ongoing resource reallocation as ethanol blending mandates divert additional cane from crystal sugar toward biofuel output. The 30% gasoline–ethanol mix scheduled for 2025 underpins a fresh supply–demand balance that favors integrated sugar-ethanol plants. São Paulo’s dominant production base is facing land-cost pressures, permitting the Center-West states to lure new investments. Liquid sugar, premium organic certifications, and technology-enabled yield gains form the leading revenue-expansion themes. Foreign capital, illustrated by Cargill’s USD 518 million takeover of SJC Bioenergia, signals long-term confidence despite input-cost volatility

Brazil Cane Sugar Market Trends and Insights

Expanding Ethanol Blending Mandates in Brazil

Brazil is set to boost its ethanol blending in gasoline from 27% to 30% by 2025. This move isn't just a minor policy tweak; it's reshaping the economics of sugarcane allocation throughout the production chain. With the Ministry of Mines and Energy confirming the technical feasibility of the E30 blend, Brazil is looking at an annual demand surge of 1.2 to 1.4 billion liters for anhydrous ethanol. This surge effectively sidelines an equivalent amount of sugar production capacity from the export market. Such a shift in demand underscores the growing biofuel applications, expanding at a rate of 4.56% annually, even as sugar has historically held sway. Notably, the timeline for this mandate aligns with Brazil's ambitious decarbonization goals under the RenovaBio program. With a target of 50 billion liters of ethanol production by 2030, Brazil is poised for a significant overhaul of its sugarcane supply chain.

Government Support and Policies

Federal and state-level support programs are evolving, moving beyond traditional agricultural subsidies to embrace initiatives that drive technological transformation and reshape competitive dynamics. Through the Plano Safra program, international players like BP Bunge have tapped into USD 1.24 billion in investments. Notably, BP Bunge's USD 98.17 million expansion in Tocantins boosts its milling capacity by 30%, reaching an annual total of 3.4 million tonnes. However, the establishment of a new regulatory framework for bioinsumos under Law No. 15.070/2024 stands out as a more strategic move. This framework streamlines the registration of biological inputs and curtails reliance on imported chemical fertilizers. Such regulatory advancements give Brazil a leg up, sidestepping the bureaucratic hurdles prevalent in U.S. and European markets. This not only offers Brazil a competitive edge but also aligns with sustainable production methods that fetch premium prices in export markets.

Volatile Production Costs

Sector profitability is under pressure due to rising input costs, particularly in fertilizers and mechanization. Fertilizer prices have increased by up to 96.4% in key producing regions, while mechanization costs have jumped by 110%. Labor costs, which constitute 34% of operational expenses in some areas, are climbing due to mechanization transitions and a shortage of rural labor. Energy costs for processing operations remain volatile, influenced by fluctuations in oil prices. This creates a hedging challenge for mills as they balance ethanol and sugar production ratios. Although the depreciation of the Brazilian real enhances export competitiveness, it also raises the cost of imported inputs, such as specialized machinery and chemicals. To address these challenges, mills are implementing vertical integration strategies and securing long-term supply contracts. However, smaller producers are experiencing margin compression, which could accelerate industry consolidation.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Advancements in Agricultural Technologies
2. Strong Export Performance and Global Supply Role
3. Impact of Sugar Tax Policies

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Crystallized sugar's commanding 84.68% market share in 2025 reflects Brazil's export-oriented production strategy and established processing infrastructure optimized for bulk commodity handling. However, liquid sugar applications are expanding at 4.34% annually through 2031 as food manufacturers seek to reduce processing steps and improve operational efficiency in beverage and confectionery production. The shift toward liquid forms is particularly pronounced in the domestic market, where proximity to end-users enables just-in-time delivery systems that reduce inventory costs. Industrial applications increasingly favor liquid sugar for its consistent quality parameters and reduced handling requirements, though crystallized forms maintain advantages in export logistics and storage stability.

Technological innovations in liquid sugar production, including advanced filtration and concentration systems, are enabling mills to capture higher margins through value-added processing. The integration of liquid sugar production with ethanol facilities creates operational synergies that optimize resource utilization during seasonal production cycles. Smaller regional producers are investing in liquid sugar capabilities to differentiate their offerings and establish direct relationships with food manufacturers, bypassing traditional commodity trading channels that compress margins.

The Brazil Cane Sugar Market Report is Segmented by Form (Crystallized Sugar, Liquid Sugar), Product Category (Raw Sugar, White Refined, VHP Sugar, Organic), Application (Food and Beverage, Pharmaceuticals, Industrial, Biofuel/Ethanol, Other Applications), and Geography (São Paulo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Mato Grosso Do Sul, Other States). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Cosan S.A.
2. Raizen
3. Copersucar
4. Sao Martinho
5. Tereos S.A.
6. Louis Dreyfus Company
7. Biosev
8. Jalles Machado
9. Adecoagro
10. Usina Coruripe
11. DWL International Food
12. Agro Betel
13. Ipiranga Agroindustrial
14. Grupo Santa Adelia
15. Usina Delta
16. Pantaleon Agro
17. Usina Santo Antonio
18. Crown Sugar
19. Tate & Lyle Plc
20. Grupo Virgolino de Oliveira

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support