Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Assessment, By Fuel type [Biofuel, Power-to-Liquid Fuel, Hydrogen Fuel, Gas-to-Liquid Fuel], By Technology [Fischer-Tropsch and Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, Hydroprocessed Fermented

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Assessment, By Fuel type [Biofuel, Power-to-Liquid Fuel, Hydrogen Fuel, Gas-to-Liquid Fuel], By Technology [Fischer-Tropsch and Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, Hydroprocessed Fermented Sugars to Synthetic Isoparaffins, FT-SPK With Aromatics, Hydrocarbon-Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, Others], By Application [Commercial, Defense, Others], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2017-2031F

Sustainable aviation fuel market is expected to observe a CAGR of 35.68% during the forecast period 2024-2031, rising from USD 1.02 billion in 2023 to USD 11.71 billion in 2031. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) represent the sole low-carbon technology, currently in use, and the aviation industry aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Given that most aircraft fuel consumption occurs during long-haul flights, SAFs play a crucial role. Governments have implemented regulations to promote SAF deployment, building upon earlier biofuel initiatives. The aviation sector expects SAFs to significantly reduce emissions. Numerous airlines have already adopted SAFs, and fuel manufacturers continue to invest in expanding capacity.

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are liquid fuels that are derived from renewable energy sources, such as green electricity or bioenergy. They are referred to as drop-in-fuels, since they are compatible with current aircraft technology and refueling infrastructure.

Different governments prioritize various types of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), which vary based on feedstock type and manufacturing processes. To maximize emission reduction potential, governments are providing incentives for fuels that demonstrate the greatest impact. Policies should encourage fuel technologies that consistently reduce emissions over time. Harmonizing national rules related to essential carbon accounting methodologies and monitoring is essential to creating a global SAF market and facilitating international airline compliance with voluntary or regulatory frameworks.

For instance, with a significant increase in the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) hopes to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Nonetheless, current frameworks run the danger of not meeting global climate objectives as they concentrate on leading markets. For this, governments are working on making the current frameworks more comprehensive.

Government Incentives to Promote Market Growth

The implementation of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) is motivated by government subsidies for low-carbon fuel production. While most existing frameworks primarily focus on transportation fuels, some countries have specifically designed policy frameworks to support SAF. Market expansion can be attributed to expectations of future laws and compliance requirements in markets that have already enacted initial SAF mandates. Over time, policy frameworks, including incentives and mandates, may gradually replace voluntary industry adoption as the primary market driver when governments implement more comprehensive packages.

To promote SAF adoption, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) launched its Assistance, Capacity-building, and Training for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (ICAO ACT-SAF) program in 2022 (ICAO, 2023f). In addition to other initiatives aimed at reducing aircraft emissions, national programs will need to support the SAF sector to achieve the Long-Term Global Aspirational Goal (LTAG). ICAO stated action plans to provide further details on initiatives to assist in SAF deployment.

As of 2023, the European Union, United Kingdom, and United States markets are covered by the most complex SAF policy frameworks and proposals. The fact that most SAF production occurs in these regions suggests that policy structures effectively encourage production. The United States’ strategy employs tax incentives as a carrot-and-stick approach to boost production. Also, European Union’s and the United Kingdom’s programs support R&D and facility investments, with a focus on meeting required blending criteria. While blending mandates have successfully achieved the intended deployment levels, the aviation sector cautions to avoid significant price increases, combined with production incentives. Implementing tools that act as a buffer against unjustified price fluctuations, such as the buyout mechanism proposed in the United Kingdom policy, can address these challenges.

North America to Dominate Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

In 2023, North America held the largest market share of the global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market due to a significant number of companies based in the region. The rise of North America is fueled by several initiatives in the United States and Canada, and increased spending by government agencies and commercial companies, including Aemetis, Inc., Alder Fuels, Gevo, Inc., and Fulcrum BioEnergy, Inc.

For instance, in April 2023, Shell Aviation and Delta reached an agreement for Delta to purchase 10 million gallons of SAF from Shell Aviation over a two-year period, with Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) serving as the hub. With over 200 million gallons of SAF committed, the international airline is more than halfway toward its goal of using 10% SAF annually by the end of 2030 and is well on its way to achieving its target of utilizing 35% SAF by 2035.

Biofuel Segment Holds the Highest Market Share

The need to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate environmental impact encourages the aviation industry to embrace biofuels. Compared to conventional aviation fuels, biofuels offer a more environmentally friendly alternative as they are derived from organic materials such as waste and plant-based feedstocks. Global climate change initiatives and increasing regulatory pressure have incentivized airlines to integrate biofuels into their operations. As biofuel technology advances and consumer demand for eco-friendly practices, aviation is increasingly adopting biofuels as a primary strategy to achieve carbon reduction targets.

According to IEA, Biofuel demand is predicted to rise by nearly 30% from 2023-2028, reaching 200 billion litres by 2028.

Strategic Partnership Boosts the Sustainable Aviation Fuels Market

Major players in the sustainable aviation fuels market are forming strategic alliances to improve their service portfolio. Companies that form strategic alliances do so by utilizing one another's assets and capabilities to succeed and gain from a more comprehensive service portfolio. Similarly, companies and governments are establishing partnerships to achieve their goals.

SK innovation, the energy division of South Korea's SK Group has agreed to invest USD 20 million in equity in Fulcrum BioEnergy Inc. The partnership included a license agreement for the exclusive to explore Fulcrum's proprietary waste-to-fuel process in South Korea and other selected Asian countries.

Similarly, Avelia, a blockchain-based digital SAF solution for corporate travel, was introduced in June 2022 by Accenture, Shell, and American Express Global Corporate Travel. Regardless of the fuel used in a flight, airlines, and sustainable fuel companies can register emissions reduction benefits against voluntary ESG and report globally to this carbon accounting mechanism that has been accepted by industry groups.

Similarly, an investigation on the sustainable production of aviation fuel in the United Arab Emirates was launched in January 2023 by BPL, Masdar, and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. With the possibility for commercial-scale production capacity expansion in Abu Dhabi. The goal of this study is to assess the project's technical and commercial viability.

Future Market Scenario (2024 – 2031F)

The growing global demand for sustainable air fuel by airlines is a significant market opportunity. Airlines are seeking sustainable alternatives to meet emission reduction targets and corporate social responsibility commitments. The demand encourages investment in SAF production, technological advancements, and feedstock innovations, fostering innovation, economies of scale, and a more sustainable aviation sector.

Governments are increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) through regulations, mandates, and roadmaps. The European Commission proposes a 2% SAF mandate by 2025, with the UK Department for Transport requiring flights to use a minimum blend of SAF, with the rate bumped up to 10.3% in 2030 and 75% in 2050. The US Transportation Department's roadmap for reaching net zero by 2050 relies on increasing SAF use for long-haul flights. These efforts aim to meet the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuels.

Mexico has initiated a public-private initiative to develop the SAF supply chain and established the Bio Jet Fuel Cluster (Cluster Bioturbosina), a group of national and multinational industry stakeholders and research centers aiming to develop the value chain for sustainable aviation biofuels, from feedstock supply to sale of a reliable, sustainable, and economically viable product for airlines.

Key Players Landscape and Outlook

Leading companies in SAF production and technology, including as Neste, Shell, and Total Energies are the large players in the global market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). These businesses have made large investments in cutting-edge SAF technologies and manufacturing facilities, which are propelling the industry ahead.

In 2023, Neste and Emirates have teamed together to supply more than three million gallons of blended Neste MY Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which combines traditional jet fuel, for Emirates aircraft leaving from Singapore Changi and Amsterdam Schiphol airports in 2024 and 2025.

In 2023, GAIL, one of the largest gas utility companies in India, and LanzaTech Worldwide are working together on a pilot project since July 2023 to capture CO2 and turn it into useful materials. This project is in line with GAIL's Net Zero 2040 goals and may help with worldwide decarbonization efforts.

In 2023, United Airlines announced a new joint venture with two biofuel businesses to generate enough sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2028 to power 50,000 flights between Chicago and Denver annually.

In November 2022, Gevo, Inc. and Iberia Airlines, a division of International Airlines Group, will enter into a new fuel sales agreement. For five years, the agreement will provide six million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel yearly; the environmental benefits are projected to be worth USD 165 million.