LNG Market Assessment, By Infrastructure [LNG Liquefaction Plants, LNG Regasification Facilities, LNG Shipping], By End-use [Power Generation, Industrial, Residential and Commercial], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2017-2031F

LNG Market Assessment, By Infrastructure [LNG Liquefaction Plants, LNG Regasification Facilities, LNG Shipping], By End-use [Power Generation, Industrial, Residential and Commercial], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2017-2031F

Global LNG market is projected to witness a CAGR of 5.04% during the forecast period 2024-2031, growing from USD 146.20 billion in 2023 to USD 216.66 billion in 2031. To strengthen energy security and projects, geopolitical governments across the world are concentrating on the supply of liquid natural gas (LNG). In the case of LNG supply, North America, especially the United States, is signified as the largest LNG exporter in the world. The country seeks to address domestic energy pricing and environmental issues in addition to meeting the growing demand for LNG abroad. The move away from coal in power generation and the need for dependable energy supplies in the wake of geopolitical unrest, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are the main drivers of the development of LNG exports.

For instance, in May 2024, EIA announced that the United States natural gas commerce is expected to increase with the opening of three major LNG projects, Golden Pass LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Plaquemines LNG Phase I. The projects are anticipated to start operations by late 2024 and increase output by 2025, boosting the LNG exports, which are anticipated to escalate by 6% in 2024 and 20% in 2025. The United States, as the largest exporter, is strengthened by the growth that is raising the demand for LNG around the world, especially in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

The Rise in LNG Shipments is Propelling Market Growth Extensively

LNG shipments are essential to the world's energy system. They make natural gas available to markets without pipeline infrastructure by maintaining safety and effective long-distance delivery. Compared to other fossil fuels, LNG shipments aid in energy source diversification, improve energy security, and encourage cleaner energy consumption. Amidst the war, a steep rise in Russian LNG exports has been witnessed in the Asia-Pacific. LNG exports are anticipated to increase further to keep up with the global rise in energy demand.

For instance, nearly 100 LNG and gas condensate cargos from the Yamal LNG plant in Russia reached the European Union in June 2024. The shipments were mostly sent to Belgium, France, and Spain. The amounts made up more than 16 billion barrels out of the 18 billion barrels of Russian LNG that were sent to Europe in the previous year.

The Establishment of LNG Liquefaction Plants is Expediting the Global LNG Market

The role of LNG in the global energy supply and decarbonization initiatives is growing. LNG liquefaction plants are essential to convert natural gas to a compact liquid state and enable long-distance ship transportation to markets not served by pipelines. By reducing the amount of natural gas by almost 600 times, the technique improves the economy and efficiency of storage and transportation. When compared to other fossil fuels, LNG produces less CO2, NOx, SO2, and particulate matter, making LNG the cleanest fossil fuel. More LNG liquefaction plants must be built globally to boost the availability of natural gas, reduce GHG emissions, and aid in the shift to low-carbon energy.

For instance, in July 2024, Scandinavian Biogas announced intentions to construct a USD 75 million bio-LNG facility in Monsteras, Sweden, which will start in late 2024. The plant will transform 300,000 tons of local manure and green matter into around 120 GWh of bio-LNG each year, equivalent to 12 million liters of diesel, principally for heavy transport and shipping. Furthermore, Finland's Wärtsilä Corporation won contracts to supply engines and fuel gas systems for two new LNG-powered boats, demonstrating the region's commitment to environmentally friendly energy solutions.

A Steep Surge in LNG Capacity is Expediting the Market Growth

The market is poised for significant growth, with an estimated 193 million metric tons (MMT) of new capacity addition expected between 2024 and 2028. The expansion aims to stabilize prices and enhance energy security across the globe. Moreover, the exceptional rise is anticipated to lead to market oversupply, drastically dropping costs, with projections indicating a decrease to approximately USD 6.9/MMBtu units by 2030.

For instance, as per the 2024 World LNG Report by the International Gas Union, the LNG market has achieved a new but fragile equilibrium, owing to a shortage of spare capacity in the forecast period. LNG receiving capacity increase has shaped market development over the last 24 months, reaching an astonishing 1,029.9 MTPA by the end of February 2024 from around 70 MTPA from 2023, marking the biggest year of new additions since 2010.

Government Initiatives Acting as a Catalyst

Government measures are crucial in marketing LNG as a transportation fuel. The activities include changing rules to accommodate LNG in commercial transportation, constructing a network of LNG filling stations, and developing policies to encourage the use of LNG. Strategic investments in infrastructure and public-private partnerships are essential for overcoming early market hurdles and guaranteeing widespread LNG adoption.

For instance, in March 2024, the Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas inaugurated India's first small-scale liquefied natural gas (SSLNG) plant at GAIL's Vijaypur plant in Madhya Pradesh. The effort is a part of the government's policy to increase the use of natural gas in the energy mix. Moreover, the government announced the SSLNG unit to improve the liquefaction and transportation of natural gas, increase environmentally friendly energy, and reduce reliance on conventional hydrocarbons such as coal and oil.

Asia-Pacific to Lead the Global Market Share

Asia-Pacific, especially China, Japan, and India, dominates the global LNG market due to high demand growth, significant investments in regasification infrastructure, and a drive toward cleaner energy. China reclaimed its position as the leading LNG importer in 2023, while India and Japan intend to raise natural gas's part of the energy mix by 2030. Southeast Asian countries are developing as significant participants, with new regasification projects ongoing, cementing Asia-Pacific's status as the uncontested global LNG market leader.

For instance, in July 2024, the Japanese government announced that it is aggressively establishing Asian gas markets to boost LNG trade and energy security in the face of diminishing domestic demand. As Japan's LNG imports fall to a decade-low, owing to a recovery in nuclear energy and renewable sources, Japanese corporations are investing in the regional markets to sell excess LNG. Projects in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia aim to build a strong Asian gas market, assuring Japan's continued prominence in the global LNG market while addressing energy flexibility as well as supply issues.

Future Market Scenario (2024 – 2031F)

A large number of new LNG projects that are under construction will cause a fundamental shift in the market from 2026, which is likely to change the overall market scenario.

Emerging economies are anticipated to augment LNG demand as they are likely to benefit from lower LNG prices compared to traditional fuels, which in turn is expected to cater to ample opportunities for market growth in the upcoming future.

IEEFA predicts that around 17 MTPA of liquefaction projects will come online around the world in 2025, more than in 2023 and 2024 combined. New capacity increases will peak in 2026, with an anticipated 64 MTPA of capacity coming online in a single year, and continue through 2027, when 37 MTPA of new capacity is expected to go online.

Key Players Landscape and Outlook

The market players are continuously striving for the growth of the LNG sector as it is a highly competitive market. Moreover, there is an intense desire for market players to gain a competitive edge in the industry. Furthermore, they are investing a hefty amount in setting up LNG plants via different collaborative techniques.

In August 2024, QatarEnergy announced that it is in negotiations with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) over a new 15-year LNG supply deal that will increase Qatar furnish Kuwait with 3 MTPA of LNG via its North Field project, beginning in 2026. The agreement intends to fulfill Kuwait's rising power in generating demands as the government increasingly relies on imported gas to meet its energy requirements.