Aviation Fuel Market Assessment, By Fuel type [Jet A-1, Jet A, Jet B, TS-1, Others], By Application [Commercial, Defense, Others], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2017-2031F

Aviation Fuel Market Assessment, By Fuel type [Jet A-1, Jet A, Jet B, TS-1, Others], By Application [Commercial, Defense, Others], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2017-2031F

Global Aviation Fuel Market is expected to observe a CAGR of 8.05% during the forecast period 2024-2031, rising from USD 251.12 billion in 2023 to USD 466.53 billion in 2031. The rising number of air passengers worldwide, coupled with government-favorable policies aimed at achieving carbon-neutral growth in international commercial aviation and reducing CO2 emissions by 2050, anticipated to drive the growth of aviation fuel during the forecast period.

The International Air Transport Association predicts that by 2036, passenger air traffic will be doubled due to developments in global economic circumstances, a decrease in average prices, and improvements in cargo handling standards. These factors are expected to boost the demand and attract budget-conscious tourists. It is projected that as air travel rises in emerging Asia-Pacific countries, the worldwide market for aviation fuel will expand dramatically. The growth is primarily due to increased Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) and passenger airline capacity development. Another factor driving the demand for aviation fuel market is the need for less expensive, carbon-footprint-reducing fuels. Leading industry players anticipate significant benefits from government initiatives supporting airport growth in developing countries such as Africa, China, and India, and initiatives promoting the commercial aviation sector.

Future air travel is predicted to rise dramatically, which would create a global need for commercial aircraft and travel. Improved air networks and lower fuel prices are some of the major factors contributing to the growth in the industry. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization, the rise in middle-class disposable income and the emergence of low-cost airlines are expected to contribute to an increase in passenger and freight traffic by 2035.

Shift Toward Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), Influencing the Market Growth

An annual 3% of the world's CO2 emissions come from the aviation industry, with each metric ton of jet fuel derived from crude oil producing approx. 3.15 tons of CO2. Emissions connected to propulsion may have a greater impact on the climate than CO2 emissions alone. Government policies to promote and produce clean fuel and blending of SAF in aviation fuels are expected to strengthen the aviation fuel market. To reduce its carbon footprint, industry is progressively implementing sustainable aviation fuels. For instance, Norway has mandated that by 2030, 0.5% of aviation fuel should be sustainable, and by 2040, all short-haul aircraft should operate entirely on electricity. A carbon pricing or emissions trading system has been implemented in over 45 nations, illustrating the dynamic regulatory landscape that businesses must follow. For instance, according to the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the United States scheduled service airlines used 1.504 billion gallons of fuel in November 2023, 5.4% less fuel compared to October 2023.

Investments in Infrastructure Development to Push Growth of the Aviation Fuel Market

The expansion of infrastructure is one of the major factors driving the demand for aviation fuel. Existing airports frequently expand their size to accommodate larger planes and handle larger passenger traffic as demand for air travel rises. New taxiways, terminals, and runways play a crucial role in this development, as they increase the number of flights and the need for aviation fuel. Additionally, new airports may be built to accommodate growing demand in areas with rapid economic growth or inadequate infrastructure, necessitating a significant amount of aviation fuel to sustain operations. Filling infrastructure, including pipelines, filling stations, and storage facilities, are common investments during an airport expansion. These facilities are essential for a reliable and secure supply of aviation fuel. The market demand rises because of the advancements in air connectivity, which makes direct flights, shorter layovers, and higher travel frequencies possible.

For instance, in December 2023, the Government of India, announced approval for developing 21 Greenfield Airports across India. Furthermore, automatic routes permit up to 49% foreign involvement in scheduled or regional air transport services and domestic scheduled passenger airlines.

Commercial Segment to Dominate the Global Aviation Fuel Market

Commercial aviation involves scheduled and non-scheduled aircraft for passenger or cargo transportation. The commercial segment is the largest consumer of aviation fuel, accounting for a quarter of total operating expenditure for an airline operator. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the airline network has grown to include more than 20,000 distinct city pairs. Therefore, the ability to directly connect cities and allow the flow of people and goods are the reasons that support the rise of commercial aircraft.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA)'s World Air Transport Statistics 2022, the global airline industry's passenger air traffic increased 43.8% compared to the previous year. Factors such as the budget airlines and the ease of travel will build a positive trend in air passenger traffic. These developments are expected to boost the demand for jet fuel in commercial applications over the upcoming years.

Asia-Pacific to Dominate the Global Aviation Fuel Market

The global market is dominated by Asia-Pacific due to the growing demand for travel in Asian countries. In terms of the number of passengers carried by plane, China ranks among the world’s major markets for aviation fuel. As of 2022, domestic travel in China holds the second position in the world’s aviation market, following the United States. By 2037, Asia-Pacific is expected to witness an additional 2.35 billion people annually, resulting in a total market size of 3.9 billion passengers. Globally, several emerging nations are expected to experience an annual increase in travel expenses of 4% to 8% per person, with India and China potentially reaching as high as 10% to 11% yearly.

It is anticipated that China will surpass the United States as the largest aviation market globally, including traffic to, from, and within the nation. Over the long term, high passenger demand is expected to be supported by the nation’s economic shift toward consumption. India is predicted to surpass the United Kingdom in 2024 and secure the third position behind the United States. Additionally, Indonesia is poised to rise from the 10th largest aviation market in the world to the 4th largest market by 2030.

Future Market Scenario (2024 – 2031F)

Major nations including Canada, the United States, Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and India are expected to see rapid expansion in the aviation fuel industry due to an increase in airline passengers, Airline infrastructure, and a rise in demand for commercial aviation services. According to the International Air Transport Association, in 2023, The demand for air travel increased significantly from 68.7% in 2022 and 94.1% of 2019 levels, up by 36.9% YoY. The industry-wide load factor was 82.3%, which was marginally lower than 2019 since there were somewhat more seats available than there were prior to the epidemic. This indicates that passenger markets are rebounding.

In 2023, domestic traffic hit all-time highs with most markets surpassing pre-pandemic levels by the middle of the year. The sector recovered because of China's reopening in January 2023, with total domestic Revenue Passenger-Kilometers (RPKs) rising 3.9% over 2019 levels and 30.4% YoY. Foreign RPKs increased 41.6% YoY and reached 88.6% of pre-COVID levels, with industry-wide foreign traffic being lower than in 2019 but growing at a solid pace. By attaining robust growth in international passenger traffic, all regions made a significant contribution to these advancements.

In comparison to December 2019, carriers in North America, Europe, and Latin America saw a significant increase in international RPKs in 2023. The least amount of traffic increased in Africa, while Middle Eastern carriers' traffic returned to pre-COVID levels. There were very slight variations in the number of foreign passengers in Asia Pacific.

Key Players Landscape and Outlook

The global aviation fuel market share is dominated by major oil companies, along with specialized fuel suppliers and refiners. The market is influenced by factors such as increasing demand for air travel, advancements in fuel technology, and a growing emphasis on sustainability. Collaborations between fuel suppliers, airlines, and technology providers are advancing adoption and production of new technology. The global aviation fuel market is poised for growth due to technological innovation and a transition towards greener fuels.

In 2022, ExxonMobil has acquired a 49.9% stake in Biojet AS, a Norwegian biofuels company, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. Biojet intends to transform waste from forestry and wood-based buildings into biofuels and components with reduced emissions. The company plans to develop five facilities for production, with commercial production expected in 2025.

Similarly, in 2021, Praj Industries Limited and Indian Oil Corporation Limited have signed an MoU to accelerate India's transition to cleaner, greener energy sources. It includes exploring opportunities in alcohol to jet fuels, 1G and 2G ethanol, compressed biogas, and related biofuels industries. This is crucial for India's carbon neutrality goal of 2070.