Capex Forecast Check, 3q23: Webscale & CNNO

Capex Forecast Check, 3q23: Webscale & CNNO

This short note provides an early review of 3Q23 market growth and capex spending figures for two of the three operator segments we cover: webscale, and carrier-neutral. (Our third segment, telco, will be addressed in a few weeks as more earnings reports are available.) The analysis is based on a review of over 80% of reporting companies in the two segments. Our official forecast for 2023 calls for $218B of capex for webscalers, and $39B for carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs). Market figures through 3Q23 suggest actual capex is likely to be closer to $200B and $36B for the two segments, respectively. This is a small change, however, and the tech portion of webscale capex is rising modestly. Moreover, new data from DigitalBridge makes clear that private equity-funded spend is strong in the data center CNNO market, helping to offset a weaker public CNNO market. Consequently, the vendor opportunity in selling to these two markets in 2023 is roughly the same size as forecast.