IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Retail Banking 2025 Predictions
This IDC study provides the 2025 top 10 predictions for retail banking. By understanding these emerging trends, retail banking businesses can better position themselves to capitalize on new opportunities, mitigate risks, and deliver enhanced value in the digital age."In the face of rapidly evolving business conditions and technological advancements, adopting a digital-first business model isn't just an opportunity — it's an imperative for survival and sustained growth in the retail banking industry," said Jerry Silva, program vice president, IDC Financial Insights.
IDC FutureScape Figure
Executive Summary
IDC FutureScape Predictions
Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
Prediction 1: By 2026, GenAI Features Will Drive a 40% Increase in Client Retention Among Hybrid Wealth Advisory Providers as Personalized Insights and Tailored Recommendations Better Meet Client Needs
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 2: By 2026, 25% of Digital Wealth Advisory Platforms Will Derive 50%+ of Revenue from Subscription Fee Models Fueled by Advanced Analytics and Digital Engagement Tools Offering Value Independent of AUM
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 3: Synthetic Loan Applications Will Grow 100% by 2027, Resulting from the Availability of GenAI and Personal Data on the Dark Web
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 4: By 2027, 70% of Tier 1 Global Banks Will Have Set Up a Dedicated Compliance Function with a Holistic Approach in Response to the Ever-Stringent Responsible AI Regulations
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 5: Bank Data Aggregation Platforms, Leveraging Open Banking and Open Banking-Style APIs, Will Capture 10% of Online Consumer-to-Business Payments Globally by 2027
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 6: By 2028, 30% of New Bank Payment System Deployments Will Include the Ability to Process Payments Across Card, Interbank, and Cross-Border Rails from a Single Platform
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 7: By 2028, 35% of Financial Institutions Will Recast GenAI-Powered Integrations to the Mid-, Back-, and Front-Office Systems and Operations as CX Programs to Prevent Revenue Erosion and Improve Loyalty
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 8: By 2029, 75% of Global Tier 1 Banking Institutions Will Have Modernized or Upgraded Their Product Development, Pricing, and Management Platforms to Enable New Product Innovation
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 9: 25% of Financial Institutions Will Have AI/ML and GenAI Embedded in Finance, ERP, and Planning Software to Improve Automation and Efficiency of Planning and Finance Staff by 2029
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Prediction 10: By 2026, 60% of Banks Worldwide Will Use RegTech Embedded with GenAI to Support Banks' Day-to-Day Risk Management or Regulatory Compliance Processes, Thus Streamlining Workflows and Reporting Generation
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Business Impact
Guidance
Advice for Technology Buyers
External Drivers: Detail
AI-Driven Business Models — Moving from AI Experimentation to Monetization
The Drive to Automate — Toward a Data-Driven Future
AI-Driven Workplace Transformation — Building Tomorrow's Workforce Today
Regulatory Flux — Navigating Compliance Challenges in a Shifting Policy Landscape
Responsible and Human-Centric Technology — Ethics in the Enterprise
Battling Against Technical Debt — Overcoming Hurdles to IT Modernization
Customer Experience Squared — Consumer and Citizen Expectations for Digital Services
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