This IDC study presents 10 predictions relevant to the payments industry. Each prediction is shaped by a common set of key drivers and provides a planning tool for technology leaders and their line-of-business (LOB) counterparts to use in their strategic planning efforts. The predictions included in this study are indicators of the changing landscape in payments and their impact across multiple use cases.According to Aaron Press, research director, Worldwide Payment Strategies at IDC, “There is a trend line running through the payments industry that brings together new platforms and new standards, creating new opportunities. As a result, payments continue to be one of the most exciting areas of financial services.”
Please Note: Extended description available upon request.
IDC FutureScape Figure
Executive Summary
IDC FutureScape Predictions
Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
Prediction 1: Less than 1% of Payments Will Be Processed Using Generative AI by 2028
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 2: By 2026, 10% of Banks Will Use AI to Optimize Payment Routing
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 3: By 2026, 15% of Cross-Border Payments Will Settle in Real Time
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 4: By 2027, 20% of B2B Payments Supporting Supply Chains Will Be Executed in Real Time
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 5: By 2027, 10% of Blockchain Payments Will Leverage ISO 20022 Formats
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 6: By 2028, Embedded Payments in eCommerce Environments Will Represent Over 70% of All Online Transactions, Enhancing User Experience and Streamlining Purchase Processes
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 7: By 2025, 60% of Corporate Banks Around the Globe Will Introduce Confirmation of Payee to Fight Fraud and Provide Corporates with Secure Instant Payments for Their B2B and B2C Services
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 8: By 2027, 25% of SMB Supply Chain Financing Will Be Obtained and Transacted on Dedicated B2B Buy Now, Pay Later Platforms
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 9: By 2026, 50% of the Banks Will Adopt Alternate Data Models to Supplement Legacy Credit Approval and Fraud Detection Decision–Making Models
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 10: By 2025, 30% of SMB/Midsize Retailers Will Adopt Unified POS Payment Solutions to Boost Competitiveness with Better Checkout Experience and Eased Ability to Add New Contactless Payment Types
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Advice for Technology Buyers
External Drivers: Detail
AI Everywhere — Generative AI Takes the Spotlight
The Drive to Automate — Maximizing Efficiency and New Opportunities
Global Supply Chain Resiliency — Push for Diversification
Cybersecurity and Risk — Building Resilience Against Multiplying Threats
The Digital Business Imperative — Competitiveness and Outcomes
Everything as a Service Intensifies — Transforming Models to Drive Change
Dynamic Work and Skills Requirements — New Work Mode Era