IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Government 2025 Predictions
This IDC FutureScape provides the outlook of IDC's Government Insights analyst team for worldwide national governments for 2025, as well as the planning horizon for the next five years."Government CIOs and CTOs, along with new appointees such as chief artificial intelligence officers, must collaborate to identify early wins in AI and GenAI, and in parallel, prepare their organizations to realize the benefits at scale. They will have to develop trustworthy collaborative approaches to threat intelligence and critical infrastructure protection, establish responsible AI governance, embed sovereignty principles in product and service procurement and implementation, and apply FinOps best practices and tools to control the cost of innovation," said Massimiliano Claps, research director, IDC Government Insights.
IDC FutureScape Figure
Executive Summary
IDC FutureScape Predictions
Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
Prediction 1: By 2025, 55% of national governments will adopt formal strategies or action plans to invest in cross-industry collaboration, planning, and protection of critical infrastructure.
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Prediction 2: By 2026, 75% of civilian governments will emulate defense and intelligence community best practices for threat intelligence and observability to enhance national cyber-resilience.
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Prediction 3: By 2028, 60% of national governments will embed sovereignty requirements in AI procurement to enhance data compliance, improve operational resilience, and reduce risks of technical lock-in.
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Prediction 4: By 2027, 70% of national governments will increase investments in data-sharing capabilities by 20% to make high-quality data available for AI training and inferencing.
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Prediction 5: By 2026, 65% of national governments will be fiscally accountable and control innovation costs in a multicloud environment via AI-enabled FinOps.
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Prediction 6: By 2025, 35% of national governments will pilot multi-agent AI and GenAI to hyper-personalize digital citizen experiences that will make the bureaucracy invisible.
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Prediction 7: By 2028, 70% of national governments will adopt modular, flexible benefits and services models embedded with GenAI for low-code/no-code integration of rules, policies, programs, and case workflows.
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Prediction 8: Led by the U.S., by 2026, 45% of national governments will hire CAIOs or assign AI responsibilities to CDOs to drive impactful AI innovation in a responsible manner.
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Prediction 9: By 2026, 35% of national governments will use AI and digital twins to make informed decisions about social and environmental sustainability mission outcomes.
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Prediction 10: Due to frequent cyberattacks and staff shortages, by 2027, a third of nations will limit organizational GenAI tool usage and move the most sensitive GenAI workloads from public cloud to infrastructure inside their security perimeter.
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Advice for Technology Buyers
External Drivers: Detail
The Drive to Automate — Toward a Data-Driven Future
Future-Proofing Against Environmental Risks — ESG Operationalization and Risk Management
AI-Driven Workplace Transformation — Building Tomorrow's Workforce Today
Expanding Digital Security Frontiers — Fortification Against Multiplying Threats
Geoeconomic Reordering — Rethinking Globalization, Supply Chains, and Macroeconomic Challenges
Responsible and Human-Centric Technology — Ethics in the Enterprise
Customer Experience Squared — Consumer and Citizen Expectations for Digital Services
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