Canadian Communications Services Forecast, 2022–2026: Telecom Inside Out

Canadian Communications Services Forecast, 2022–2026: Telecom Inside Out

This IDC study presents IDC Canada's five-year forecasts for communications services spending by market and customer segments, company size, industry sector, and region for 2022–2026 based on the annual update of IDC Canada's custom Communications Market Model and replaces our previous comprehensive spring and fall 2021 forecasts (see Lawrence Surtees, Meng Cong, and Manish Nargas, Canadian Communications Services Forecast, 2021–2025: Telecom Still Inside Out from COVID-19, IDC Canada # This five-year forecast document also includes our current assumptions of the COVID-19 pandemic in early to mid-2022.However, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic is still uncertain and coupled with the Russia-Ukraine War continues to produce economic impacts on a scale not seen since the Great Depression as well as introducing many uncertainties and factors that change almost weekly. Clients are cautioned that this forecast document is based on a snapshot of fast-changing macroeconomic forecasts and conditionsthat existed in mid-to-late April. Readers are also urged to visit IDC's website (at www.idc.com) for frequent updates on the global and Canadian communications and IT sectors.Readers should note the adjustments made in this study and rely on this current forecast for initial 2022 planning purposes. This study addresses the following questions:How does current and projected spending on Canadian communication services differ by: market segment, customer segment, company size, region, and industry vertical sector?Which customer segments, company size, industry, and regional segments of the Canadian communications services market are poised for growth, and which are the best opportunities for communication service providers (SPs) over the new five-year forecast period?"Investment in and deployment of next-generation network (NGN) technologies are key to coping with the triple challenges to mitigate COVID-19-related revenue loss, meet burgeoning network demand, and pursue potential new revenue streams," says study coauthor Lawrence Surtees, vice president of Communications Research and principal analyst at IDC Canada Ltd. "The duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and prospect of recession remain unknown, but the communications service sector remains better insulated than most to weather the uncertainties."

Please Note: Extended description available upon request.


IDC Market Forecast Figure
Executive Summary
Advice for Technology Suppliers
Market Forecast
Canadian Communications Services Market in 2021
Comparison of Year-End Results with Previous IDC Forecast
Communications Service Market Segment Trends
Wireless Remains Key to Competitive Position
Video Segment Declining
Enterprise TV Revenue Not a Panacea
Telecom Service Customer Segment Trends
Enterprise Sector Trends
Regional Trends
Communications Service Sector Forecast, 2022–2026
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic
New Variants of SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evade Immunity and Spread Rapidly
Remote Work Will Persist
Russia-Ukraine War Stokes Recession Fears
Communications Revenue Forecast, 2022–2026
Local Wireline
PSTN Legacy Circuit Switch Decline
VoIP, Cable Telephony, and SIP Trunk
SIP Trunk and UCCaaS
Long Distance
Toll-Free Long Distance Spurred by COVID-19 Pandemic
Data
Internet
Wireless
Wireless Service Revenue Hit by COVID-19 Restrictions
Video
Customer Segment Forecast: Enterprise Gap Widens
Consumer (Home) Segment
Wholesale
Enterprise Market
Industry Verticals Forecast
Regional Forecast
Market Context
Drivers and Inhibitors
Wireline Voice Service
Drivers
Increased Toll-Free Long Distance Use and Conferencing
Inhibitors
Demographics and Mobile Workforce
Mobile Substitution
SIP Trunks
Internet and Video
Drivers
Fibre-Optic Rollouts Accelerate
Gigabit Internet and Increasing Data Needs
National Broadband Strategy
Inhibitors
Wireless Internet Substitution and 5G Wireless
Over-the-Top Video
Wireless Service
Drivers
Substitution Gains Traction
Next-Generation 5G Wireless Broadband and Enterprise DX
Inhibitors
Wireless Voice Declines Continue to Pressure ARPU
5G Wireless Spectrum Allocation Lags
Unlimited (Infinite) Wireless Bandwidth Data Plans
Data (WAN) Services
Drivers
Fibre-Optic Wavelength Network Proliferation
Enterprise Over the Top: Multi-Access Edge Computing Links Wireless, Cloud Compute, and Artificial Intelligence
Inhibitors
SD-WAN Potential Cannibalization of MPLS IP VPN Revenue
Interoperability
Significant Market Developments
Changes from Prior Forecast
Market Definition
Communications Taxonomy and Service Definitions
Local TDM and Wireline
VoIP, Cable Telephony, and SIP Trunk
SIP Trunk
Long Distance
Wireless
Wireless Subscriptions and Subscribers
Wireless Data Segmentation
Wireless Wholesale
Internet
Data
Video Services
Industry Sector Definitions
Financial Services
Manufacturing
Retail/Wholesale
Public Sector
Utilities
Communications and Media
Services
Other Industries
Consumer
Telecommunications Wholesale
Company Size Definitions
Region Definitions
Glossary
Methodology
SIP Trunk Forecast
Note on SIP Terms
Difficulty Reconciling Forecasts with CRTC Market Data
Related Research
Further Research

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