Future TV - What are the market scenarios in the face of the current disruptions?
The uncertainties about the future of broadcasting are changing in nature. It is now a given that linear television channels will not disappear tomorrow, but that their consumption will continue to decline in favour of OTT. This transition is a fundamental trend.
In terms of business models, SVOD will continue to grow but at a slower pace than in recent years. Targeted advertising, including on TV, will continue to grow. Both will contribute significantly to the sector’s revenues.
Unknowns remain on the place that technology (AI, data, immersivity…) will take in the industry, on the major regulatory choices, on the profitability of the new services or on the possible future industrial configurations and the place of viral video platforms.
This IDATE study covers the latest technical, economic, strategic and usage trends that will impact the future of the sector.
It takes stock of the current situation in the audiovisual landscape and examines the drivers of change that make it possible to draw possible futures for the audiovisual market.
Four breakthrough scenarios are defined: FAST TV, Oligopoly, Uberisation, Specialisation.
- 1. Executive summary
- 2. Trends in the TV & video market
- 2.1. The series of crises has reinforced the downward trend in the TV market
- 2.2. The number of TV subscribers stagnates worldwide
- 2.3. A changing advertising market
- 2.4. The connected TV revival
- 2.5. Dynamics of OTT services in Europe
- 2.6. The economic difficulties of leading OTT video services
- 2.7. The role of Big tech
- 2.8. Areas of uncertainty around audiovisual content
- 3. The changes at work
- 3.1. Tensions in the linear TV audience, growth in online consumption
- 3.2. A shift in OTT video usages
- 3.3. The contribution of data management
- 3.4. The growing integration of Artificial Intelligence
- 3.5. The development of immersivity and extended reality
- 3.6. The unknown of the Metaverse
- 3.7. The rise of the “creator economy”
- 3.8. European regulation of media and digital entertainment
- 3.5. Consideration of environmental impact
- 4. TV & video market outlook
- 4.1. Analysis of drivers of change
- 4.2. TV scenarios 2030
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