Pricing & Markets Market Research Reports

As many consumers and ratepayers know, the price of energy fluctuates with organic, market-driven demand, but also speculation, infrastructural and supply chain bottlenecks, and regional and temporal scarcity. Examples of pricing and cost fluctuations can be found with fossil fuel commodities, notably petroleum products and natural gas, but also grid electricity. Market speculation, particularly in futures, can drive up spot prices and new contracts for petroleum and natural gas, as scarcity is perceived in future markets. Reductions in production volumes for oil can also lead to higher prices, as has been the case with political disturbances in oil-producing economies as well as politically-motivated embargoes. Similarly, supply gluts and falling demand can dramatically reduce market prices. For example, both factors affected plummeting natural gas prices in North America in the past few years as shale gas production increased and demand fell in a recessionary economy. Damaged or inactive refinery capacities can also affect petroleum product pricing down the supply chain, as has occurred in the US following the closure and debilitation of refineries along the Gulf Coast following natural disasters.

Similar to commodity supply chains, disturbances in transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure and lower available capacities for energy transmission can increase prices in spot, day-ahead and contract electricity. Similarly, premiums are paid for renewable energy electricity due to higher generation costs and regulatory mechanisms like feed-in tariffs (FIT). Fuel costs can also drive up prices for electricity, particularly with gas turbines. Seasonal and daily demand spikes or load peaks greatly increase prices or rates for electricity.

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Pricing & Markets Industry Research & Market Reports

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya

    ... June 2024 Eurobond repayment. Fortunately, the government partially addressed this challenge by securing a $1.4bn buyback in February, supported by the World Bank and other financial institutions. Relief, however, was shortlived: the nation's fiscal position ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone

    ... to 1.5% in 2026, but we acknowledge that the risks are to the downside. Over the coming quarters, we think the eurozone economy will gradually improve due to stronger consumption and easing monetary policy conditions. Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria

    ... persistent hardship in the country's private sector, economic activity should benefit from improved demand in the final quarter of the year. We now expect the Nigerian economy to grow at a faster clip in 2024 ... Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana

    ... ease steadily throughout 2025, dipping below 10.0% y/y by Q1 2026. The country’s external position should remain sustainable due to strong export growth, supported by rising gold, oil, and cocoa output. On the other hand, ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman

    ... to be driven by non-energy sectors, after a strong pickup of 4.6% in H1, despite a deeply negative contribution from accommodation and food services. We think non-energy sector growth will average 2.8% next year, while ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates

    ... has delayed a planned supply increase until early next year in reaction to the weak oil demand outlook and production growth outside of OPEC+. Given the sluggish demand outlook means oil prices will likely remain ... Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Europe

    ... to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of soft growth. Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India

    ... for India to 6.8%, from 7.0% previously. This follows a projected 6.8% expansion for 2024. Our forecast reflects a more sluggish domestic demand outlook. We expect 6.7% growth over FY2025/26, the same as in FY2024/25. Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands

    ... wage growth alongside lower inflation helps drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will average 2.5% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024, thanks to lower international energy prices and easing underlying inflationary pressures. Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany

    ... lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don't expect a meaningful economic impact from the breakdown of the German traffic light coalition in the near term, ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden

    ... Q3 GDP. We now project medium-term GDP will be 0.1ppt smaller due to expected policy changes following the US elections, namely more protectionism. But we still expect the economy to pick up pace due to ... Read More

  • Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts

    ... eased and OPEC+ postponed unwinding its December production cuts. We now think OPEC+ will start to unwind at the end of Q1 2025. Trump's election victory poses risks to the downside as his administration is ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati

    ... of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance continues to depend on external factors given its limited scope to raise domestic growth drivers. Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger

    ... pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipeline has been targeted by anti-junta rebels while neighbouring Benin refuses to avail its port for crude exports. Benin has little to gain ... Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone

    ... and private sector activity, with real GDP growth forecast to rise from 3.4% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2026. Real GDP growth is forecast to decline again during 2027-2035 to an ... Read More

  • Impact of the 2024 U.S. Election on Energy Security in the U.S. - October 2024 Edition

    ... outcome of the 2024 U.S. election is poised to significantly impact energy security and infrastructure, both domestically and globally. This analysis explores various facets of this impact through the lens of current energy policies, market ... Read More

  • Impact of the 2024 U.S. Election on Energy Security in the U.S. - October 2024 Edition

    ... outcome of the 2024 U.S. election is poised to significantly impact energy security and infrastructure, both domestically and globally. This analysis explores various facets of this impact through the lens of current energy policies, market ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait

    ... growth forecast down to a 1.9% contraction from 0.5% previously. We attribute our revision primarily to the changes in measurement scopes rather than a shift in our view. In fact, we now project even stronger ... Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia

    ... large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down considerably. Still, the economy will likely continue to outperform the eurozone average next year and over the long ... Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic

    ... now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated previously), and an additional 3.7% decline is expected in 2025. Lower oil output will weigh on economic growth. Brent crude ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep.

    ... Forecasts - Iran, Islamic Rep. We've upgraded our FY2024 GDP growth forecast for Iran by 0.1ppt to 3.0%, on stronger-than-expected oil production and exports. Still, this is a marked slowdown from 5.0% growth in FY2023. Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq

    ... expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.6%, to reflect the recent extension of the voluntary 220 tb/d cut, pledged until the end of November. We expect Iraq will ... Read More

  • Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia

    ... and our forecast of soft growth in Q3 and Q4 will likely result in a mild GDP contraction of 0.5% for this year. We expect growth of 3.6% next year as the economy starts to ... Read More

  • Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya

    ... the CBL is now split between factions that follow the instructions of the country’s two rival governments. The faction in active control lacks access to the CBL’s hard currency deposits, with the result that letters ... Read More

  • Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany

    ... signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then again in July, falling below the previous trough in December. Read More

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