Thematic Research - Banking Predictions 2024

Thematic Research - Banking Predictions 2024

Summary

This report identifies the 20 key themes that will impact the banking industry in 2024. For each theme, we offer a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and suggest further reading.

2024 will be a year of reckoning for fintech providers. A more difficult macroeconomic environment will see new entrants and established fintech companies prioritize profitability rather than “growth at all costs”. Investors will demand shorter, clearer paths to profitability, and demand clarity on core revenue-generating products. There will be far less tolerance for vanity acquisition numbers, or expansion into new products, or new markets, with, instead, a firm focus on unit economics.

Scope

• ESG, which many felt would fundamentally alter the trajectory of banking from 2021 onwards, will fall even further down the list of priorities for bank CEOs, employees, and consumers.
• Fee models for banking vary in different parts of the world, but 2024 will remind everyone that banking is not, nor has it ever been, ‘free’—it is just a question of how providers prefer to charge, and how consumers prefer to pay.
• The IMF forecasts global inflation will drop to 5.2% in 2024, down from a peak of 8.7% in 2022. However, the IMF predicts inflation will remain above target rates in almost all countries.
• The pace and nature of change driven by generative AI will benefit incumbent providers the most in the near term, as they have the customers and the processes to be improved incrementally.

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the most disruptive themes in banking for 2024.
• Access key predictions per theme to help guide strategy and tech decisions at your institution.
• Understand which individual firms are best placed to win or lose amid predicted thematic impacts.