Tech, Media and Telecom (TMT) Predictions in 2024 - Thematic Intelligence

Tech, Media and Telecom (TMT) Predictions in 2024 - Thematic Intelligence


Summary

Companies that invest in the right themes become success stories; those that miss the big themes end up as failures. Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders entering your sector. To help businesses in the tech, media, and telecom (TMT) industry stay ahead of the competition and understand what 2024 will hold, GlobalData’s thematic analysts have produced the Tech, Media, & Telecoms Predictions 2024 report.

This report identifies the top 40 themes that will impact the TMT industry in 2023. In it, our analysts predict how each theme will develop in 2023, provide infographics using data from GlobalData’s intelligence centers, identify winners and losers, and point you toward further reading. This report will help you to understand and identify the important themes that threaten to disrupt your business in 2024. Opportunities await those who can exploit the benefits of each theme.

Key Highlights

Generative AI will impact every industry. We forecast the generative AI market to grow from $1.8 billion in 2022 to $33 billion by 2027, implying a CAGR of 80% during this period. Of the five advanced AI technologies, generative AI is the fastest growing and will account for 10.2% of the overall AI market in 2027. GlobalData estimates the total AI market will be worth $908.7 billion in 2030.
Environmental, social, and governance-or ESG-is moving into a new era, which we call ESG 2.0. In this second phase, there will be a greater focus on the ‘E’ component, with a shift from a voluntary regime to a mandatory one, driven by government mandates rather than consumer pressure.
Throughout 2023, the US export bans on advanced technology progressively choked China’s access to the high-end chips, such as graphics processing units (GPUs), necessary for AI development. Global chip manufacturing is moving fast. As the computing power necessary to train the latest AI models increases rapidly, Chinese companies will be held back by less powerful GPUs. For years, Beijing has been mobilizing national resources to develop competitive AI firms while striving for chip self-sufficiency, with modest success. China will break through in certain industry-specific AI and tech hardware applications. However, by the time China produces high-end chips to the same level as the US, it may be too late for Chinese AI companies to catch up with US AI companies like OpenAI, which have benefited from high-end chip availability.

Scope
  • Analysis of the 40 most important themes impacting the TMT sector, classified into three groups: technology, macroeconomic, and ESG. These include AI, cybersecurity, China, batteries, and inflation.
  • The report includes quantitative and qualitative predictions for each theme in 2024, including market forecasts. Infographics are provided for each theme to justify key predictions using survey results and data from GlobalData’s patents, jobs, deals, company filings, and social media analytics databases. Winners and losers are identified in each theme using data from thematic scorecards, driven by GlobalData’s unique thematic methodology.
Reasons to Buy
  • Position yourself for future success by investing in the TMT industry's most important tech, regulatory, and macroeconomic themes. In this report, GlobalData’s analysts provide guidance on how to improve your standing in each theme.
  • Source the leading vendors for the most disruptive themes in the TMT industry from our lists of winners and shortlist potential partners based on their areas of expertise.
  • Quickly identify attractive investment targets by understanding which companies are the most advanced in the themes that will determine future success in the TMT industry.
  • Quantify the global sales opportunity for disruptive tech services by accessing GlobalData’s market forecasts, produced by technology, healthcare, automotive, retail, banking, aerospace, defense, and security analysts.


Executive Summary
Top Themes for 2024
Viewing the world’s data by theme helps you make important decisions
Artificial Intelligence
Generative AI’s rapid growth will continue
AI will fuel an information battle in 2024 and beyond
AI-led business models will transform the way companies operate
Regulation will drive new trends, such as constitutional AI
Winners and losers
Further reading
ESG 2.0
Companies will need help reporting Scope 3 emissions
Emissions pricing will spread
At least one major tech firm will be fined for greenwashing
Winners and losers
Further reading
China
Chinese AI companies will not be able to compete with their US rivals
China will remain the world’s manufacturer, but growth will remain weak
China will lead the world in 5G
Winners and losers
Further reading
AI Regulation
By 2025, China and the EU will have the most advanced AI legislation
Companies will increase AI model transparency, but regulators will not be satisfied
Bad actors will use AI to disrupt national elections in 2024
Winners and losers
Further reading
Batteries
The Li-ion battery market will grow by 200% between 2022 and 2030
LFP batteries will disrupt the battery market
Sodium batteries will alleviate the pressure on lithium supplies
There will be a battery shortage in 2024
Winners and losers
Further reading
The US …..
The US economy is heading for a soft landing
US companies will reshore supply chains to reduce geopolitical risk
Continuation and further weaponization of US chips
Winners and losers
Further reading
Tech Regulation
In 2024, social media giants will receive EU fines for sharing misinformation
GDPR-related fines will continue to increase in 2024
The Digital Markets Act poses the largest threat to digital monopolies
China’s regulatory landscape will remain unpredictable in 2024
Winners and losers
Further reading
Cybersecurity
Generative AI will increase the risk of social engineering attacks
Uses of AI in cybersecurity technology will diversify
Extreme pressure on CISOs will continue in 2024
Tighter regulation will enforce EU cyber compliance
Winners and losers
Further reading
India
AI innovation will accelerate as regulators take a wait-and-see approach
Connectivity will continue to improve, driving up smartphone penetration
The software sector will grow rapidly, supported by programs like Digital India
Winners and losers
Further reading
Inflation
Inflation will fall worldwide as Europe and the UK narrowly avoid a recession
The era of cheap money is over
The AI revolution will shield early adopters from macroeconomic challenges
Winners and losers
Further reading
3D Printing
3D printing will not achieve standardization and mass production in 2024
Companies will invest in more rigorous cybersecurity measures
Innovation in bioprinting will accelerate as medical applications increase
Winners and losers
Further reading
Agritech
AI will drive the fourth agricultural revolution
AI will provide new methods of plant breeding
Greater connectivity is essential for digital transformation in agriculture
Winners and losers
Further reading
AI Chips
The semiconductor industry will return to growth
Decreased reliance on Nvidia as companies develop chips in-house
The US will increase supply chain reshoring
Winners and losers
Further reading
Blockchain
Blockchain moves beyond the hype with real-world applications
Financial firms will dive further into tokenized assets
Enterprise blockchain development will move in-house
China will play an important role in enterprise blockchain adoption
Winners and losers
Further reading
Cloud Computing
The cloud computing market will be worth $1.4 trillion by 2027
AI will have a transformative effect on cloud computing in 2024 and beyond
FinOps will become standard practice
The edge computing market will be worth $32 billion by 2027
Winners and losers
Further reading
Consumer Internet of Things
Apple’s Vision Pro will make headlines, but its price will deter many consumers
Smart security systems and smart thermostats will be a priority in automated homes
Increased 5G availability will drive vehicle-to-vehicle interaction in connected cars
Winners and losers
Further reading
Critical Minerals
Net-zero targets will continue to put pressure on critical mineral markets
China will continue to dominate the critical mineral supply chain
Pressure on lithium supplies will be eased by alternatives
Recycling will become an important part of supply chain diversification
Winners and losers
Further reading
Cryptocurrencies
The third cryptocurrency winter will end in 2024
The SEC will approve the first spot crypto ETFs
The US will attempt to produce a clear regulatory framework
Winners and losers
Further reading
Decarbonization
Decarbonization solutions will become big business
Tech companies will aim to scale up carbon removal technologies
The US and EU will fail to close the green technology gap with China
Winners and losers
Further reading
Edtech
Generative AI will transform teaching and learning
Virtual and augmented reality-based education will begin but will face hurdles
AI will drive an edtech M&A rebound in 2024
Winners and losers
Further reading
Electric Vehicles
Annual global EV sales will surpass 50 million units by 2028
China will remain the dominant force in the global EV market in 2024
Chinese BEV exports to Europe will continue despite an EU investigation
Competition will increase with more BEV models coming to market
Winners and losers
Further reading
Enterprise Internet of Things
The global enterprise IoT market will generate $1.2 trillion in revenue by 2027
IoT will morph into the AI-powered internet of everything
Sustainable power requires wider adoption of smart grid technology
Winners and losers
Further reading
Fintech
Fintechs will prioritize profitability
AI-based credit checks will transform digital lending
Embedded finance will drive the adoption of super-apps
Winners and losers
Further reading
Frictionless Commerce
Frictionless commerce lets retail customers walk out without checking out
Cheap silicon sensors will make frictionless commerce affordable
Radio-frequency identification will support the growth of frictionless commerce
Frictionless commerce will provide new space for data collection
Winners and losers
Further reading
Future Connectivity
5.5G will bridge the gap between 5G and 6G
6G development will integrate AI and metamaterials into mobile networks
Starlink will dominate the satellite market for ubiquitous connectivity
Winners and losers
Further reading
Future Mobility
In 2024, partial driving automation will be widespread
Limited aerial ridesharing will not start until 2028, but production will begin in 2024
Autonomous transport as a service will be available by 2027
China will lead in AVs by 2035
M&A deal activity will continue to decline in 2024
Winners and losers
Further reading
The Future of Work
Generative AI will bring opportunities and challenges
Talent availability, retention strategies, and upskilling will remain top of mind
Renewable energy and green transition will drive demand for new jobs in 2024
Winners and losers
Further reading
Gaming
The gaming industry will be worth $279 billion in 2024
Generative AI will make its mark
Metaverse gaming will remain niche but trigger M&A activity
The Nintendo Switch 2 and Sony PS5 Pro consoles will debut
Winners and losers
Further reading
Generation Z
Gen Z will continue to demand workplace flexibility
Gen Z will drive investment in sustainable strategies
Gen Z will fuel a rise in the power of micro-influencers
Winners and losers
Further reading
Healthtech
Drug discovery will benefit from the implementation of generative AI
Precision and personalized medicine drug market will expand rapidly
Challenges must be addressed for digital therapeutics to reach their potential
Winners and losers
Further reading
Japan
5G penetration will reach 68% by 2024
A falling population will lead to increased reliance on automation
Japan will make significant developments toward Society 5.0
Winners and losers
Further reading
The Metaverse
The metaverse winter will continue in 2024
Enterprises will adopt the metaverse with a focus on the future of work
New metaverse devices will intensify market competition
Regulations will be regional but will address common concerns
Winners and losers
Further reading
Quantum Computing
The quantum computing market will be worth $10 billion by 2030
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) will be standardized in 2024
1,000 qubits reached, more logical qubits to come
A publicly traded quantum computing company will be delisted in 2024
Winners and losers 7
Further reading 7
Robotics
Demand for workplace automation will continue to grow
AI will help reduce the cost of robots
Service robots will drive growth for the robotics industry
Exoskeletons will be the fastest-growing robotics market
Winners and losers
Further reading
Social Media
Social media giants will face increased content moderation challenges
Social media’s ad-funded business model is under threat
Digital authoritarianism will rise
Winners and losers
Further reading
The Space Economy
The space economy will be worth between $760 billion and $1 trillion by 2030
Geopolitical competition will escalate in space
The Earth observation industry will take off
Governments will beef up their efforts to tackle space debris
Winners and losers
Further reading
Supply Chain Disruption
Further cost increases are inevitable as onshoring and friendshoring accelerate
India will benefit from the shift out of China
National champions will be big winners of the new supply chain world order
Supply chains will become increasingly automated
Winners and losers
Further reading
Synthetic Biology
A steadily emerging industry prepares for a decade of growth
Tech companies will trial future-proof DNA data storage at a preliminary level
China’s focus on biosynthetic food will pave the way for collaboration with Singapore
Australia will gain a competitive edge in synthetic biology as an early investor
Winners 7
Further reading 7
Ukraine Conflict 8
After stabilizing in 2023, war-related global economic risks will pick up again 8
Media and tech companies will come under pressure to support war aims 8
Digitized technologies will dominate defense procurement 8
Winners and losers
Further reading
Video Streaming
Video streaming services will increasingly promote ad-based models
Subscription fatigue will affect all platforms, especially the smaller ones
Artificial intelligence will benefit large streamers but also bring risks
Winners and losers
Further reading
Glossary
Data Sources 8
Further Reading 9
GlobalData reports 9
Our Thematic Research Methodology
About GlobalData
Contact Us 7
List of Tables
Table 1:Glossary
Table 2: GlobalData database
Table 3: GlobalData reports
List of Figures
Figure 1: The biggest themes driving growth in the TMT industry in 2024
Figure 2: Artificial Intelligence
Figure 3: ESG 2.0
Figure 4: China
Figure 5: Key phases in the development of generative AI:
Figure 6: Batteries
Figure 7: US
Figure 8: Tech Regulation
Figure 9: Cybersecurity
Figure 10: India
Figure 11: Inflation
Figure 12: 3D Printing
Figure 13: Agritech
Figure 14: AI Chips
Figure 15: Blockchain
Figure 16: Cloud Computing
Figure 17: Consumer Internet of Things
Figure 18: Critical Minerals
Figure 19: Cryptocurrencies
Figure 20: Decarbonization
Figure 21: Edtech
Figure 22: Electric Vehicles
Figure 23: Enterprise Internet of Things
Figure 24: Fintech
Figure 25: Frictionless Commerce
Figure 26: Future Connectivity
Figure 27: Future Mobility
Figure 28: The Future of Work
Figure 29: Gaming
Figure 30: Generation Z
Figure 31: Healthtech
Figure 32: Japan
Figure 33: The Metaverse
Figure 34: Quantum Computing
Figure 35: Robotics
Figure 36: Social Media
Figure 37: The Space Economy
Figure 38:Supply Chain Disruption
Figure 39:
Figure 40:Ukraine Conflict
Figure 41: Video Streaming
Figure 42: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard

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