Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Lupus Nephritis Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast, 2021-2031

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Lupus Nephritis Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast, 2021-2031

Summary

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disease with a chronic relapsing and remitting course, having variable manifestations ranging from mild to life-threatening illness (Tsokos, 2011). In SLE, the immune system attacks its own tissues, causing widespread inflammation and tissue damage in the affected organs (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022). SLE is also referred to as lupus interchangeably by physicians (Askanase, Shum and Mitnick, 2012; Giles, 2021). The disease typically affects several different organ systems of the body, which include the kidneys, skin, joints, heart, nervous system, lungs, and blood vessels (Justiz Vaillant, Goyal and Varacallo, 2022). SLE patients experience a variety of symptoms that include fatigue, skin rashes including sun sensitivity rashes such as a malar or “butterfly” rash, fever, and pain or swelling in the joints (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022). The disease condition causes symptoms that may get worse over time and then improve. According to the Lupus Foundation of America, the times when symptoms get worse are called flares, and the periods when they improve or go away are known as remissions (Lupus Foundation of America, 2020).

Among SLE patients, one-third to almost half have renal manifestation, referred to as lupus nephritis (LN) (Lee et al., 2010). LN is one of the most serious complications of SLE (Lupus Foundation of America, 2021a). LN occurs when lupus autoantibodies affect structures in the kidneys that filter out waste. This causes kidney inflammation and may lead to blood in the urine, protein in the urine, high blood pressure, weight gain, swollen ankles, impaired kidney function, or even kidney failure (Lee et al., 2010; Mayo Clinic, 2022b).

In the 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of SLE are expected to increase from 36,601 cases in 2021 to 37,303 cases in 2031, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.19%. In 2031, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of SLE in the 7MM, with 17,994 cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases of SLE with 635 cases. Although the overall trend shows an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of SLE across the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists expect that there will be several markets (Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan) where the number of diagnosed incident cases of SLE will decrease from 2021–31. Japan will have the greatest decrease in diagnosed incident cases of SLE, from 4,668 cases in 2021 to 4,409 cases in 2031, with a negative AGR of 0.55%. In the 7MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE are expected to increase from 551,826 cases in 2021 to 579,991 cases in 2031, at an AGR of 0.51%. In 2031, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE in the 7MM, with 258,075 cases, whereas Italy will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE with 26,767 cases.

In the 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of LN are expected to increase from 5,065 cases in 2021 to 5,141 cases in 2031, at an AGR of 0.15%. In 2031, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of LN in the 7MM, with 3,564 cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases of LN with 62 cases. Although the overall trend shows an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of LN across the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists expect that there will be several markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan) where the number of diagnosed incident cases of LN will decrease from 2021–31. Japan will have the greatest decrease in diagnosed incident cases of LN, from 778 cases in 2021 to 693 cases in 2031, with a negative AGR of 1.09%. In the 7MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases of LN are expected to increase from 161,216 cases in 2021 to 166,019 cases in 2031, at an AGR of 0.30%. In 2031, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of LN in the 7MM, with 75,715 cases, whereas Italy will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases of LN with 7,849 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE and LN to changes in the diagnosed incidence and diagnosed prevalence rates, and population dynamics in each market.

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for SLE and LN in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of both SLE and LN. The diagnosed incident cases of SLE and LN, and the diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE, are segmented by age (in five-year age-groups) and sex. The report also includes the diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE by severity (uncomplicated SLE [mild] and complicated SLE [moderate/severe]], and the diagnosed prevalent cases of LN segmented by severity based on the 2003 International Society of Nephrology (ISN)/Renal Pathology Society (RPS) classification (class I, class II, class III, class IV, class V, and class VI). Additionally, diagnosed prevalent cases of LN are segmented by treatment received. This epidemiology forecast for SLE and LN is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed incident cases and prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE and LN across these markets.

• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global SLE and LN market.
• Quantify patient populations in the global SLE and LN market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for SLE and LN therapeutics in each of the markets covered.