Strategic Intelligence: US Elections 2024 Executive Briefing (Third Edition)

Strategic Intelligence: US Elections 2024 Executive Briefing (Third Edition)

Summary

Trump has the capacity and will to take what he and his quickly nominated Cabinet intend to be radical policy actions that will affect businesses in the US and worldwide. This policy agenda is the focus of this briefing

The scope for new policies is now at its peak before the inevitable depletion of political capital in the run-up to the next mid-term elections in November 2026. Whatever the mid-terms' outcome, the political focus will switch to the next presidential election in which Trump as a second-term president will not be eligible to run.

The report focuses on five policy areas with wide-ranging economic and business impacts and where the new Trump administration is geared for action. These are: 'trade war'-i.e., protectionism (increased tariffs on imports into the US); 'tech war', stemming from the strategic US-China rivalry with broad collateral damage to the global economy; immigration control; tax cuts; and a sharp shift in energy and climate-related policies. Other policies with narrower sector-specific impacts are reviewed in sections at the end of this report on the automotive, energy, financial services, healthcare, and tech sectors

Key Highlights

• Trump 2.0 will be very different from Trump 1.0. He will make impacts from the outsets with a strong mandate and a loyal set of key appointees to key positions. We have already seen markets react to his announcements and policy areas such as tariffs and migrant labour could have significant economic impacts.

• This report discusses how the key policies of President, Trump, especially tariffs, will impact the US and global economy.
• It explores his likely policies and what their impact will be.
• It explores the sectors that will potentially be most impacted, including energy and automotive.

• Expect action from Trump from day one, as a President's second term is often sees as a two-year administration until the mid-term elections in 2026. Tariffs could have major implications for both the US economy and for the countries and key sectors that are targeted.