Strategic Intelligence - Drones in Aerospace & Defense
Summary
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)-colloquially known as ‘drones’-have been a much-used part of advanced militaries’ arsenals for many decades. From the RQ-2 Pioneer used in 1991 during Operation Desert Storm, to the MQ-9 Reaper used in current conflicts in Syria, the US, in particular, has led the way in the development and utilization of unmanned capabilities. This has been due in part to the high financial threshold for R&D, and subsequent export controls on US platforms. However, other producers are beginning to develop viable, affordable platforms, subsequently increasing the horizontal proliferation of unmanned capabilities. The growth of drone technology in the wider consumer and commercial markets has further altered the cost calculus of drone operations, facilitating the development of novel concepts and programs focusing on the potential benefits provided by relatively low-cost, ‘attritable’ UAV platforms.
This newfound focus has reinvigorated the development of novel military UAVs such as loitering munitions, as well as research into the dual-use potential of consumer drone technology. Loitering munitions in particular are a rapidly expanding segment within the unmanned systems market, combining the benefits of unmanned autonomy and precision-guided munitions within a single platform. The loitering munitions market will benefit from increased modularity, the use of artificial intelligence (AI), the use of swarm technology, and increased sensor capabilities in the next ten years. Simultaneously, recent conflicts have illustrated the utility of repurposing consumer drone technology for defense applications, with the implications of this trend beginning to influence both tactical and strategic considerations within global defense circles. GlobalData estimates that the global military UAV market will expand from a value of $13.9 billion in 2024 to $25.6 billion in 2034, growing with a CAGR of 6.3%. The global drone market was worth $15.2 billion in 2020 and will reach $89.6 billion by 2030, with the strongest growth coming from commercial drones, which will record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.6% between 2020 and 2030, rising from $3.4 billion in 2020 to $57.0 billion in 2030.
Scope
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