Southeast Asia Gas & LNG Market Outlook 2024

Southeast Asia Gas & LNG Market Outlook 2024

Summary

Southeast Asia’s natural gas supply peaked but is in danger of demand outstripping supply unless more gas fields are discovered. There is a slight transition of energy to more cleaner and sustainable fuel sources, and is expected to continue, including a phase out from coal over the next decades or so. Due to economic development, including urbanization, conditions are favorable for exploration and production.

Many projects for exploration and production, liquefication, and regasification are due to come online within the next 6 years, and the growth trajectory of such projects seems to be upward. Energy security within the region is essential, including their largest buyer, China, and their relationship that often sees disputes in the South China Sea.

The pipeline in the region is around 20,000km but shared across different countries, with two current lines running from Myanmar to China, and an upcoming project that runs from Malaysia to China. Thailand is focusing its efforts on regasification and is due to become the largest in the region in terms of capacity by 2030. Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and instability in the Middle East beyond the Israel-Palestine conflict, means energy security is a global issue, to which the region is an important provider of gas to global markets.

Prices did peak, and are still above pre-COVID prices, yet the market remains stable as commitments from the region’s bigger producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia, have continued their commitment to exporting gas around the globe.

Key Highlights

• Natural gas demand in Southeast Asia will be driven by industrial growth and power generation through 2030. High urbanization and population growth are main drivers of its demand. Supply levels in the region are forecast to go into deficit, but optimism and confidence remains as new exploration into gas fields continues.
• Indonesia and Malaysia account for more than 70% of the regional supply currently, but Indonesia’s own rising domestic demand, against broader regional consumption trends, may increase dependence on imports in the coming years. Regional, and global markets will continue to assess these trends carefully.
• Major pipelines, and regasification facilities are seeing steady and strong investment. Of these projects, the Trans Oriental Gas Project holds huge importance within the region for continued and improved supply connectivity. This further represents the complex and efficient system in which the region operates.
• More pipelines are due to start in the next few years, largely led by the larger players in the region, and those with extensive trade bindings. China and Malaysia are working on the Trans Oriental, and PTT Public and Vietnam Oil & Gas is developing Block B-O, the midstream section to Block B - Gas Development.
• Together Malaysia and Indonesia account for 90% of the region’s LNG liquefication capacity. Singapore, though not a producer of natural gas, is still a strategic actor within the region in the supply chain, with over 450,000 tons of LNG through re-export activities.
• LNG imports have shown growth in the region, especially within Thailand, as they became the largest importer in the region in 2023, and Vietnam continues to invest and increase in its regasification capacity, anticipating the rise in demand for LNG across the region, and thus being proactive.
• Southeast Asia’s energy landscape is increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding China’s growing influence in the South China Sea. Being a vital shipping route, where 40% of global LNG travels through annually, it continues to represent a key concern for regional actors, and the wider global economy.
• Beyond military means, China continues to exert its influence by leveraging its economic might over countries such as Myanmar. Its heavy investment in large scale energy projects and the fact that they are purchasing 30% of regional gas production, further strengthens their position.
• The region must find a delicate balancing act to continue securing energy needs, and China’s ever-increasing dominance, and leverage tactics.
-Natural gas has been central to the region in its development and will continue to be as a transition fuel. Its development of renewable energy capacity is a bid towards cleaner sources of energy. Investments into such projects continue to see gains, and cooperation will be necessary to securing cleaner fuel sources.
• As of 2024, 21 CCUS projects are due to go live within the next 10 years, largely driven by the efforts of Indonesia and Malaysia. While none are currently in operation, these projects highlight Southeast Asia’s shift to a low-carbon future, leveraging their current gas infrastructure, setting an example for others.

Scope

• Analysis of Southeast Asia Natural Gas Production by Country and Basin.
• Analysis of Europe’s natural gas demand by country and sector, as well as its use and outlook for power generation.
• Review of Europe’s most important active and upcoming natural gas field projects.
• Details of the most important active and upcoming European gas pipeline systems and underground storage projects.
• Assessment of the European LNG liquefaction and regasification capacity. and upcoming regasification projects.
• Analysis of the LNG trade activity in the continent.
• Assessment of Europe's phase-out of Russian gas
• Overview of the EU's Energy Transition Policies affecting the Natural Gas market

Reasons to Buy

• Comprehensive, data-driven, timely, region-specific, strategic, insightful, forward-looking, geopolitical, investment-focused, and energy transition.