Overweight and Obesity Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast, 2021-2031
Summary
Obesity is a chronic disease characterized by the accumulation of excess body fat. Individuals living with obesity may undergo metabolic dysfunction on account of excess adipose tissue. The diagnostic criteria for obesity are met by a body mass index (BMI) of 30kg/m2 or more (NIH, 2022a). This can lead to a state of chronic systemic inflammation, as well as a predisposition to comorbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Clinical interventions aim to manage obesity by encouraging patient behavioral change, though cases with a BMI of 35kg/m2 or above may warrant bariatric surgery, particularly in the presence of comorbidities (NIH, 2022b).
GlobalData epidemiologists utilized comprehensive, country-specific obesity data from nationally representative public health surveillance systems and databases to arrive at a meaningful, in-depth epidemiological analysis and forecast for the total prevalence and diagnosed prevalence of obesity. Moreover, GlobalData epidemiologists provided detailed age- and sex segmentations, with additional segmentation by BMI class. Finally, historical data were evaluated in all 7MM to strengthen the forecast by more accurately capturing changes in prevalence throughout the forecast period.
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of overweight and obesity combined in the 7MM is expected to increase from 421,970,603 in 2021 to 444,552,780 in 2031. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight and obesity combined in the 7MM will increase from 276,919,516 in 2021 to 291,960,428 in 2031.
Scope
- The Obesity and Overweight Epidemiology Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends of obesity and overweight in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan).
- The report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of obesity, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity, and diagnosed incident cases of obesity segmented by age (5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-17 years, 18-19 years, and by 5-year age groups for age 20 years up to 85 years and older) and sex. Diagnosed prevalent cases are further segmented by obesity class (Classes I, II, and III). Lastly, the forecast includes the diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery.
- The obesity epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The Epidemiology Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.
The Overweight and Obesity Epidemiology series will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global overweight and obese markets.
- Quantify patient populations in the global overweight and obese markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for overweight and obesity therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
- Understand magnitude of the overweight and obese population by age, sex, and BMI class.
- 1 Overweight and Obesity: Executive Summary
- 1.1 Catalyst
- 1.2 Related reports
- 1.3 Upcoming reports
- 2 Epidemiology
- 2.1 Disease background
- 2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
- 2.3 Global and historical trends
- 2.3.1 Total prevalence of overweight
- 2.3.2 Total prevalence of obesity
- 2.3.3 Diagnosed prevalence of overweight
- 2.3.4 Diagnosed prevalence of obesity
- 2.4 7MM forecast methodology
- 2.4.1 Sources
- 2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
- 2.4.3 Total prevalent cases of overweight
- 2.4.4 Total prevalent cases of obesity
- 2.4.5 Total prevalent cases by BMI class
- 2.4.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight, obesity, and obesity by BMI class
- 2.4.7 Diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery
- 2.5 Epidemiological forecast for overweight and obesity (2021-31)
- 2.5.1 Total prevalent cases of overweight
- 2.5.2 Total prevalent cases of obesity
- 2.5.3 Diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
- 2.5.4 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
- 2.5.5 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight
- 2.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
- 2.5.7 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
- 2.5.8 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity
- 2.5.9 Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by BMI class
- 2.5.10 Diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery
- 2.6 Discussion
- 2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
- 2.6.2 COVID-19 impact
- 2.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
- 2.6.4 Strengths of the analysis
- 3 Appendix
- 3.1 Bibliography
- 3.2 Primary research - high-prescriber survey
- 3.3 About the authors
- 3.3.1 Epidemiologist
- 3.3.2 Reviewers
- 3.3.3 Vice President of Disease Analysis and Intelligence
- 3.3.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
- Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Summary of newly added data types
- Table 2: Summary of updated data types
- Table 3: Classification systems for obesity based on BMI cutoff points
- Table 4: Risk factors and comorbidities for obesity
- Table 5: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: 7MM, total prevalent cases of overweight, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 and 2031 (N)
- Figure 2: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 and 2031 (N)
- Figure 3: 7MM, total prevalent cases of obesity, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 and 2031 (N)
- Figure 4: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 and 2031 (N)
- Figure 5: 7MM, total prevalence of overweight, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2011-31 (%)
- Figure 6: 7MM, total prevalence of obesity, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2011-31 (%)
- Figure 7: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of overweight, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2011-31 (%)
- Figure 8: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of obesity, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2011-31 (%)
- Figure 9: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight and obesity
- Figure 10: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of Class I, Class II, and Class III obesity
- Figure 11: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast diagnosed incidence of bariatric surgery
- Figure 12: 7MM, total prevalent cases of overweight, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 13: 7MM, total prevalent cases of obesity, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 14: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 15: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by age, men and women, 2021 (N)
- Figure 16: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of overweight by sex, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 17: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by age, men and women, 2021 (N)
- Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by sex, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity by BMI class, men and women, ages ≥5 years, 2021 (N)
- Figure 21: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of bariatric surgery, men and women, all ages, 2021 (N)
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