North America Energy Transition Market Analysis by Sectors (Power, Electric Mobility, Renewable Fuels, Hydrogen and CCS/CCU) and Trends

North America Energy Transition Market Analysis by Sectors (Power, Electric Mobility, Renewable Fuels, Hydrogen and CCS/CCU) and Trends

Summary

This report addresses the status of clean energy transition in North America by through the lens of several sectors, namely power generation, electric mobility, renewable fuels, carbon capture, and clean hydrogen.

The energy transition in North America is gaining steam due to both the global momentum behind the sector and the Biden administration’s support. Recent laws such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and other initiatives are beginning to funnel billions of dollars into the sector and reduce the green premium on less developed technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture.

Coal power generation is set to decrease to under 10% of the total share by 2030, with solar PV largely coming in as a replacement, as well as wind to a lesser extent. Gas will remain an important baseload power source throughout that period.

In 2021, EVs accounted for just 5% of US light vehicle sales, but rapid growth is expected during this decade. EVs are likely to take over 20% of sales by 2030, driven by government policies, tax credits, higher gasoline prices, and growing environmental consciousness.

The US has long been a global leader in ethanol production and use produced from corn. With advancement in renewable fuel technologies, other agricultural and waste products will be used to create fuels like renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Fifty-seven renewable refineries are in the pipeline across North America, and twenty-five are already in operation, representing a total production capacity of 11 billion gallons by 2030.

North America is one of the world’s most active regions for carbon capture, accounting for 63% of global capacity in 2021. One hundred and fifty projects of varying size are in the pipeline to commence operations by 2030.

North America has seen plenty of activity in the low-carbon hydrogen space, including the announcement of the world’s two largest projects in eastern Canada by Green Hydrogen International. At 43 mtpa capacity each, these two projects together account for more than half of the global active and pipeline capacity. In addition, North America is one of the most attractive regions for blue hydrogen due to abundant natural gas and favourable conditions for geological CO2 storage.

Scope

• Power sector outlook to 2030
• Electric vehicle forecast and policies
• Current and forecact renewable fuels production & policies
• Carbon capture status
• Clean hydrogen capacity forecast, uses, and policies

• Understand where clean energy opportunities lie by sector and geography.
• Understand which clean energy sectors are seeing activity and which are slow to catch on.
• Understand what policies are in place across the region to encourage clean energy transition.