Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033

Summary

Discovered in 1983, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is an RNA virus that reverse transcribes itself into the human host’s DNA and produces lifelong infection. HIV primarily infects cells with CD4+ antigen, such as T-cells and macrophages, two essential white blood cell types (Swinkels et al., 2024) During the acute stage of infection, HIV destroys these CD4+ cells, which allows for the transmission of the virus, opportunistic infections, and the eventual development of AIDS (NIH, 2021; NIH, 2024). Symptoms occur within four weeks of exposure and include flu-like symptoms such as fever, fatigue, muscle pain, rash, and headache. Symptoms last approximately 18 days before the onset of chronic infection (Swinkels et al., 2024). Chronic HIV infection is largely asymptomatic. If untreated, it will develop into AIDS after approximately 10 years. AIDS is defined by a CD4+ cell count below 200 cells per cubic millimeter of blood or the presence of AIDS-defining conditions, such as pulmonary candidiasis, primary lymphoma of the brain, or Kaposi sarcoma (NIH, 2024; Swinkels et al., 2024)

HIV transmission occurs via contact with bodily fluids, such as can occur during unprotected sex, childbirth and breastfeeding, intravenous drug use, and needle stick (NIH, 2024). At-risk populations for HIV include people who inject drugs (PWID), children of an HIV-positive birthing person, men who have sex with men (MSM), sex workers, institutionalized people such as prisoners, and gender-diverse people (Swinkels et al., 2024).

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for HIV in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases, diagnosed prevalent cases, and diagnosed incident cases of HIV segmented by age (<18 years, 18-29 years, and by 10-year age groups for 30 years up to 80 years and older) and sex. Additionally, this report provides a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART), segmented by age (<13 years, 13-17 years, and 18 years and older), as well as the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). Coverage of the prophylactic population by pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is also provided throughout the forecast.

• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HIV markets.
• Quantify patient populations in the global HIV markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HIV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
• Understand magnitude of the HIV population by age, sex, ART coverage, HBV/HCV co-infection, as well as PrEP and PEP coverage of the prophylactic population.