Global Risk Report: Q3 2024 Update

Global Risk Report: Q3 2024 Update

Summary

The twenty-fifth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q3 2024 ranks Switzerland at the top followed by Denmark and Luxembourg. 37 countries were identified in the low-risk zone, 49 countries under medium risk, 58 countries under high risk and nine countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q3 2024.

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

• Global risk: The Q3 2024 update of the GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) indicates a risk similar to the previous quarter, with a score of 55.6 out of 100. Although the global economy is resilient, downside risks persist due to geopolitical tensions and climate impact.
• Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific region's risk score dipped slightly from 54.1 in Q2 2024 to 54.0 in Q3 2024, reflecting favorable economic trends in emerging nations and policy support from China. China's stimulus efforts and India’s robust domestic demand contributed to economic stability, while easing inflation and resilient private consumption in emerging markets added to the positive outlook. Additionally, strong annual economic growth in major countries, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, reduced perceived risks and enhanced the overall regional economic outlook.
• Americas: The Americas' risk score declined slightly from 57.1 in Q2 2024 to 57.0 in Q3 2024, supported by favorable economic changes. Easing inflationary pressures and policy rate cuts in major American economies bolstered confidence, although high US debt levels remain a concern. In 2024, Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to make steady progress in addressing economic imbalances after the pandemic. However, challenges persist, including the need to correct fiscal imbalances, restore lost income, and recover pre-pandemic poverty reduction gains.
• Europe: Europe remains the world’s least-risk region, with its risk score slightly improving from 41.8 in Q2 2024 to 41.4 in Q3 2024. Economic recovery continues, with gradual growth, a steady decline in inflation, and investment momentum boosted by rate cuts, including those by the ECB. However, recovery is moderated by ongoing geopolitical tensions, labor shortages, and climate concerns, underscoring the importance of sustainable strategies to navigate these evolving challenges and support long-term stability.
• Middle East and Africa: The Middle East and Africa remain the highest-risk region, with a risk score rising from 65.9 in Q2 2024 to 66.3 in Q3 2024 due to conflicts, shipping disruptions, and oil volatility, leading to mixed growth. Diversification and regulatory improvements are vital to resilience, with some oil exporters shifting toward non-oil sectors. Africa's growth outlook is cautiously optimistic, supported by the African Continental Free Trade Area, but faces challenges such as high debt and natural disasters.

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