Global Power Mix in Transition - 2022 -2030

Global Power Mix in Transition - 2022 -2030

Summary

This outlook provides an analysis of how the global power mix has evolved in recent years and identifies key trends as we move towards 2035, delivering insight on future costs as well as focus areas for investment in the industry.

Overall, the power mix is expected to undergo significant changes in the run up to 2035. Strong policy support, financial incentives and technology improvement will improve the competitiveness of renewable energy compared to traditional thermal power. As a result, the presence of renewables in the power mix is expected to increase dramatically, reaching 49% by 2035.

Solar PV will emerge as the largest single source of renewable power, alone accounting for 20% of the power mix in 2035. However, wind power will also experience growth, with the offshore wind power segment experiencing a CAGR of 18% between 2023 and 2035. However, despite these growth trends, thermal power is still expected to account for 42% of the generation mix in 2035.

The rate at which economies shift away from thermal power will vary strongly by region. South and Central America will continue to have the cleanest regional energy mix, maintaining renewable generation rates of over 70% between 2023 and 2035. Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific will also make significant progress towards increasing their share of renewable generation. However, the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region will remain largely reliant on thermal power through to 2035.

The adoption of renewables will be facilitated by technologies such as hydrogen and energy storage, which will both help to tackle the challenge of renewable intermittency. Both of these technologies are expected to experience strong growth before the end of the decade, but similarly to renewable generation, market participation will vary strongly with region.

Key Highlights

• Despite technological development and increasing efficiency, global energy demand will continue to rise between 2023 and 2035, increasing at a CAGR of 3.4% between 2023 and 2035.
• Renewables will continue to hold an increasing share of the global power mix, with generation increasing at a CAGR of 4.1% between 2023 and 2035.
• However, despite the ramp up of renewable generation, coal will still remain the most dominant single source of energy into 2035, where it will marginally exceed solar, with an expected 21% share of the global power mix.
• APAC will experience a strong growth in its power generation, increasing at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2023 and 2035. This will be chiefly driven by its increasing population.
• Solar thermal, geothermal, and biopower will continue to have some of the highest project costs per kW.
• 2027 is currently expected to see the biggest rise in natural gas generation capacity, with an addition of 106GW of capacity being added in this year.

Scope

• Global power generation analysis
• Regional power generation analysis
• Generation trends by sub-technology
• Average project costs and investment by technology
• Generation trend analysis by technology
• Upcoming thermal capacity and decommissioning
• Emerging technologies such as energy storage and hydrogen

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends globally and by region by each of the power technologies.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand the region's different power landscapes by 2035.
• Understand technology by technology macroeconomics and market.
• Facilitate the understanding on how and where the market is growing as it is rapidly scaling up to position as one of the main topics of the international and regional agenda.