Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report (Q1 2024 Update)

Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report (Q1 2024 Update)

Summary

The global economy is grappling with the impact of heightened interest rates and lower external demand, impeding economic momentum and fostering a subdued business sentiment worldwide. The challenges are further compounded by China's economic deceleration and declining trade, particularly affecting the global manufacturing sector. Additionally, increased global tensions from events like Israel’s conflict with Hamas and the situation in Ukraine pose significant risks to ongoing economic growth.

GlobalData's Q1 2024 revision resulted in a 0.08 percentage point uptick in the global real GDP growth forecast for 2024, compared to the Q4 2023 update. This positive adjustment is attributed to the steady rise in consumer confidence in major advanced economies and the expected robust performance of Asia-Pacific nations. While growth rate projections for 2024 have been adjusted upward in Q1 2024 for all regions, it is noteworthy that all regions, except the MEA, are anticipated to experience a slowdown compared to the previous year.

Major economies are witnessing a decline in inflation rates, attributed to the impact of monetary tightening and reduced energy costs. GlobalData indicates a drop-in global inflation rate from 8.7% in 2022 to an estimated 5.4% in 2023. Projections for 2024 suggest a further easing to 4.2%, with expectations to decrease to 3.5% in 2025, as per GlobalData's Q1 2024 forecasts. Across regions, GlobalData anticipates inflation rate reductions in 2024: by 2.2 percentage points (pp) in APAC, 1.8 pp in the Americas, 6.2 pp in the MEA, and 3.2 pp in Europe, contributing to a global inflation decrease of 1.2 pp.

Scope

GlobalData in its Q1 2024 update, projects a continuation of the global economic slowdown for the third consecutive year, with an anticipated growth rate of 2.1% in 2024, compared to an estimated 2.4% growth recorded in 2023. The report underscores the intricate interplay of economic factors and geopolitical events shaping the trajectory of the world economy, necessitating strategic considerations for businesses and policymakers alike.

Reasons to Buy

GlobalData's Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key development of the global economy. The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential and direction of operations.