Demographics - Thematic Intelligence

Demographics - Thematic Intelligence

Summary

Demographic mega-trends of rapidly aging and shrinking populations are unfurling, most notably in Western Europe and East Asia. They are shaping rising geopolitical tensions, de-globalization, and a new world order of inward-looking nations and blocs. Meanwhile, war and climate change threaten mass migrations from Central America, Africa, and South Asia that could overwhelm boundaries, nation-states, and infrastructures.

The next decade will see a massive transfer of power and wealth from the departing boomers to young cohorts with very different habits and values.

Key Highlights

• The 2022 UN World Population Prospects report predicts that Sub-Saharan Africa will become the world’s most populous region in the late 2060s. In fact, between 2022 and 2050, the region’s population is expected to almost double, exceeding two billion inhabitants by the late 2040s. This global reshuffle of the world’s population will reconfigure migration pathways and policies as aging economies struggle to replenish their workforces.
• History’s biggest-ever transfer of wealth and power is underway as the so-called ‘boomers’ retire and die, and the younger cohorts take over with very different experiences, assumptions, habits, and values. Cerulli Associates predicts that up to $68 trillion in assets will be transferred to younger generations within the next 25 years.
• A study from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), found that an annual average of 21.5 million people were displaced due to weather-related events between 2008 and 2022. As the impacts of climate change become increasingly extreme, this number will grow significantly.
• Aging populations and the increased buying power of millennials and Generation Z will see changes to product preferences across all consumer sub-sectors. As a result, companies’ strengths across ESG, ecommerce, cybersecurity, online delivery, and robotics will shape their exposure to the demographic shift.

• This report provides an overview of the demographics theme.
• It outlines the current distribution of the world’s population and projections for future population growth.
• It identifies the key trends impacting growth of the theme over the next 12 to 24 months, classified into three categories: technology trends, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory trends.
• It includes GlobalData’s Demographic framework, which maps out the different components driving demographic shift.
• It includes generational profiles for the six living generations, which includes key characteristics.
• The report also contains country demographic profiles with population forecasts up to 2025 for 7 major economies.
• It includes government policy implications, spanning immigration, public sector spending, welfare policy, and regulation.
• The report outlines demographic impact across seven sectors, identifies companies that will be positively or negatively impacted for each sector.
• The report includes a company filings analysis for mentions of aging populations.

• Demographics will be one of the most impactful themes over the next decades. Overall changes to population size and distribution, the rise in financial power of Gen Z, and the deepening problem of aging populations in developed economies will create winners and losers across all sectors. This report identifies how both countries and companies are bracing themselves for demographic shift, ranging from policy mechanism to future technologies.