Critical Materials Shaping Energy Transition

Critical Materials Shaping Energy Transition

Summary

The global energy transition will require a substantial build out of capacity across key technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, electric vehicles and low-carbon hydrogen production. This will increase demand across a broad range of critical materials and for some this demand growth will outpace supply. In its critical minerals report, GlobalData identifies the most at-risk raw materials necessary for the energy transition, taking into account the importance of each material to different energy transition technologies, the volume of material required, and risk factors to each material’s supply. Using this framework, the report discusses the supply risk of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum, silicon, and graphite.

The raw materials discussed will experience significant demand increases from energy transition technologies. Despite recent oversupply concerns, lithium arguably remains the most at-risk critical raw material for the long term, with its energy density properties making it a pivotal raw material for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and energy storage more widely. Although miners are increasing their production capacity, which will alleviate the mine side supply risk, lithium refining remains highly geographically concentrated in select countries such as China, creating single source risk in the processing element of the value chain.

Meanwhile, other raw materials such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and graphite, will continue to have a medium-high level of risk in terms of how they could impact energy transition technologies. Large quantities of each material will be required for technologies such as wind, solar, power grids, energy storage, and electric vehicles, which will put pressure on existing supplies while new mines continue to develop.

Materials such as platinum and silicon present a medium to low risk for the energy transition but still require international efforts to secure their supplies as both will face a strong increase in demand in the long term. A widespread and rapid adoption of PEM electrolyzers within hydrogen production will threaten platinum supplies while, despite its importance to solar, silicon still holds one of the most geographically concentrated supply chains.

Key Highlights

• Recent years have witnessed a strong increase in demand for key minerals following the increased installation of renewable energy and its supporting infrastructure.
• According to the IEA, mineral demand from clean energy technologies increased from 4.6Mt in 2010 to 7.1Mt in 2020, which represented a CAGR of 4.3% across the time frame.
• According to GlobalData’s commodity production forecasts, lithium production is expected to increase at a CAGR of almost 14% between 2024 and 2030, surpassing 500kT by the end of the decade.
• Although alternative battery chemistries are increasingly a focus of research and development efforts, energy storage projects relying on lithium-ion batteries are still expected to see a strong increase between 2023 and the end of the decade, with the energy storage capacity of this sub-technology increasing from 18GWh in 2023 to 54GWh by 2030 as a number of pipeline projects come online.
• While Chile will retain its strong market position in the global copper industry with a pipeline of 97 mine projects where copper is the primary commodity, other countries such as Peru, the United States, Canada, and Australia will also be popular sites for upcoming copper mines.
• China dominates each stage of solar value chain, acting as a leading producer of silicon, with a forecast production capacity of 6mtpa in 2024. China is also a pre-eminent player within wafer, cell, as well as panel and module manufacturing.

Scope

• Risk assessment of critical raw materials required for energy transition technologies
• Risk drivers for critical material value chains
• Lithium supply and demand forecasts
• Lithium active and upcoming mines
• Energy transition technologies driving increased lithium demand
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for lithium
• Copper supply and demand forecasts
• Analysis of upcoming copper projects by geography and development stage
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for copper
• Cobalt supply and demand forecasts
• Project details for largest active and upcoming cobalt mines
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for cobalt
• Nickel supply and demand forecasts
• Project details for largest active and upcoming nickel projects
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for nickel production
• Platinum supply and demand forecasts
• Project details for largest active and upcoming platinum projects
• Analysis of leading countries and companies for platinum production
• Silicon supply and demand analysis
• Top silicon producing countries
• Graphite supply and demand analysis
• Project details for largest active and upcoming graphite projects
• Leading countries and companies for graphite production

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the factors driving risk for the supplies of critical materials necessary for the energy transition.
• Gain an understanding of the critical material demands of energy transition technologies.
• Stay informed about key mining projects that will influence the supplies of critical raw materials
• Gain insight into the geographical characteristics of the critical raw material market
• Understand the key players producing lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum and graphite.