Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033

Summary

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex, heterogeneous, debilitating, and progressive disease characterized by persistent respiratory symptoms and airflow limitation (Vogelmeier et al., 2013). It is a common lung disorder in the aging population with systemic features ensuring morbidity and mortality in all stages of severity (Vogelmeier et al., 2013). Consequently, COPD represents a significant healthcare concern with increased prevalence and mortality rates globally. With approximately 3 million deaths every year being attributed to COPD, the disease is the third leading cause of mortality worldwide (World Health Organisation, 2020; World Health Organization, 2023). The disease usually begins with an asymptomatic phase where lung function deterioration is not associated with clinically relevant symptoms, eventually progressing to a symptomatic phase that is clinically evident only when the values of forced expiratory volume per second (FEV1) decrease substantially(Sutherland and Cherniack, 2004; Bhatia and Fromer, 2011). Common symptoms of COPD include dyspnea, chronic cough, wheezing, and regular sputum production. Dyspnea is the most prominent and distressing clinical symptom of COPD, which results in exercise intolerance and physical decline in patients. As the disease progresses, symptoms worsen with an increase in exacerbation rate and deterioration of health status, further increasing the risk of hospitalization and mortality (Bhatia and Fromer, 2011).

In the 7MM, the total prevalent cases of COPD are expected to increase from 62,543,523 cases in 2023 to 70,351,495 cases in 2033, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.25%. In 2033, the US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of COPD in the 7MM, with 32,324,045 cases, whereas the UK will have the fewest total prevalent cases of COPD with 3,108,086 cases. In the 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD are expected to increase from 33,743,242 cases in 2023 to 38,024,609 cases in 2033, at an AGR of 1.27%. In 2033, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD in the 7MM, with 17,877,721 cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD with 1,151,522 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD to changes in population dynamics and the total and diagnosed prevalence rates in each market.

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for COPD in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan).
• The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD. The total prevalent cases and the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD are segmented by age (35-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and 80 years and older) and sex.
• The report also includes the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity classification by GOLD 2016 criteria using the Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) questionnaire scores and/or the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) scores, as well as the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD by severity classification by GOLD 2023 criteria using mMRC and/or CAT scores. Although not covered in this report, the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD with asthma-COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS) by GOLD 2016 or updated GOLD criteria can be found in the model.
• This epidemiology forecast for COPD is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. GlobalData epidemiologists applied the GOLD staging system to diagnose and classify COPD patients across the 7MM. Accordingly, the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD in the 7MM are based on the latest data available by GOLD criteria.
• The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast total prevalent cases and the diagnosed prevalent cases of COPD across these markets.

Reasons to Buy

The Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) epidemiology series will allow you to -

• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global COPD market.
• Quantify patient populations in the global COPD market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for COPD therapeutics in each of the markets covered.