Bulgaria Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector – Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis, 2024-2028

Bulgaria Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector – Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis, 2024-2028


Summary

The construction industry in Bulgaria is expected to decline by 1% in real terms in 2024, owing to elevated costs for materials, energy, and labour, and falling building permits. According to the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the gross building area of permits issued for the construction of new buildings declined by 14.4% year-on-year (YoY) during the first nine months of 2023, with that for residentials declining by 22.7% YoY during the same period. Moreover, the construction of new buildings started also declined by 5.5% YoY during January–September 2023, with that for new residential declining by 8.1% YoY during the same period.

Over the remainder of the forecast period, between 2025 and 2028, Bulgaria’s construction industry is expected to recover and record an annual average growth rate of 4.2%, supported by investment in transport, and renewable energy projects. According to the Electricity System Operator (ESO) of Bulgaria, the country plans to add 5.9GW power capacity by 2031, of which 4.9GW will be through renewable sources. In December 2023, the European Union (EU), under Just Transition Fund (JTF), announced funding of BGN2.3 billion ($1.2 billion) to support climate transition in the country. Under this plan, the country aims to support energy efficiency measures in residential buildings, construct renewable energy source capacities, develop industrial areas, and reach climate-neutral economy by 2050 by phasing out coal and reducing CO2 emissions.

GlobalData’s Construction in Bulgaria – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2028 (H1 2024) report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into the Bulgarian construction industry, including -
  • The Bulgarian construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
  • Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Bulgarian construction industry
  • Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.
Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Bulgaria. It provides -
  • Historical (2019–2023) and forecast (2024–2028) valuations of the construction industry in Bulgaria, featuring details of key growth drivers.
  • Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
  • Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
  • Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
Reasons to Buy
  • Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
  • Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
  • Understand the latest industry and market trends.
  • Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.
  • Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
  • Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.


1 Executive Summary
2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance
3 Context
3.1 Economic Performance
3.2 Political Environment and Policy
3.3 Demographics
3.4 Risk Profile
4 Construction Outlook
4.1 All Construction
Outlook
Latest news and developments
Construction Projects Momentum Index
4.2 Commercial Construction
Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments
4.3 Industrial Construction
Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments
4.4 Infrastructure Construction
Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments
4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction
Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments
4.6 Institutional Construction
Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments
4.7 Residential Construction
Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments
5 Key Industry Participants
5.1 Contractors
5.2 Consultants
6 Construction Market Data
7 Appendix
7.1 What is this Report About?
7.2 Definitions
7.3 CRI Methodology
8 About GlobalData
9 Contact Us
List of Tables
Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
Table 2: Bulgaria, Key Economic Indicators
Table 3: Bulgaria, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2019–28
Table 4: Bulgaria, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value
Table 5: Bulgaria, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2019–28
Table 6: Bulgaria, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value
Table 7: Bulgaria, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2019–28
Table 8: Bulgaria, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value
Table 9: Bulgaria, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2019–28
Table 10: Bulgaria, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value
Table 11: Bulgaria, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2019–28
Table 12: Bulgaria, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value
Table 13: Bulgaria, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2019–28
Table 14: Bulgaria, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value
Table 15: Bulgaria, Key Contractors
Table 16: Bulgaria, Key Consultants
Table 17: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million)
Table 18: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (Nominal, BGN Million)
Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
Table 20: Risk Dimensions
Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions
List of Figures
Figure 1: Eastern Europe, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2022–28
Figure 2: Bulgaria, Construction Output by Sector (Real % Change), 2022–24 and 2025–28
Figure 3: Bulgaria, Risk Summary
Figure 4: Bulgaria, Risk Regional Comparison
Figure 5: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million, 2022 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2019–28
Figure 6: Bulgaria, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 7: Bulgaria, Construction Value Add (BGN Million, 2015 Prices)
Figure 8: Bulgaria, Construction Production Index (Unadjusted, 2015=100)
Figure 9: Bulgaria, Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Construction (BGN Million, 2015 Chain Linked Volumes)
Figure 10: Bulgaria, Loans Awarded to the Construction Industry (BGN Million)
Figure 11: Bulgaria, Building Permits Issued for Construction of New Buildings (Gross Building Area – in 1,000m2)
Figure 12: Bulgaria, Construction of New Buildings Started (Gross Building Area – in 1,000m2)
Figure 13: Bulgaria, Construction Projects Momentum Index
Figure 14: Bulgaria, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 15: Bulgaria, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 16: Bulgaria, Wholesale and Retail Trade Value Add (BGN Million, 2015 Prices)
Figure 17: Bulgaria, Overnight Stays (In Number, Thousands)
Figure 18: Bulgaria, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 19: Bulgaria, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 20: Bulgaria, Industrial Production Index (Unadjusted, 2015=100)
Figure 21: Bulgaria, Total Exports (BGN Billion)
Figure 22: Bulgaria, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 23: Bulgaria, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 24: Bulgaria, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 25: Bulgaria, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 26: Bulgaria, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 27: Bulgaria, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 28: Bulgaria, Administrative Building Permits (Gross Building Area – in 1,000m2)
Figure 29: Bulgaria, Construction of New Administrative Buildings Started (Gross Building Area – in 1,000m2)
Figure 30: Bulgaria, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2019–28
Figure 31: Bulgaria, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 32: Bulgaria, Real Estate Activities Value Add (BGN Million, 2015 Prices)
Figure 33: Bulgaria, Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Dwellings (BGN Million, 2015 Chain Linked Volumes)
Figure 34: Bulgaria, Residential Building Permits Issued (Gross Building Area – in 1,000m2)
Figure 35: Bulgaria, Construction of New Residential Buildings Started (Gross Building Area – in 1,000m2)
Figure 36: Bulgaria, Loans for the Real Estate Sector (BGN Million)
Figure 37: Bulgaria, House Price Index (2015=100)
Figure 38: Bulgaria, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)
Figure 39: Bulgaria, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

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