Autonomous Vehicles - Strategic Intelligence

Autonomous Vehicles - Strategic Intelligence

Summary

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be a major economic driving force, with potential for new business models in ride-hailing, robotaxis, freight logistics, and more. China and the US are leading AV the tech race, with global leadership in the automotive industry at stake. Development costs for AV technology are high, but major players like Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia are continuing to invest, with global sales forecast to surpass 500,000 units by 2030. Incidents involving AVs,as seen with GM's Cruise, can be costly for the company and a setback the AV industry as a whole.

Autonomous vehicles will be a major economic driving force

Self-driving vehicles are already available in a limited capacity, but the potential to expand throughout all forms of future mobility is what makes autonomous vehicles (AVs) a key battleground for car manufacturers, mobility services, and tech companies.

Level 4 and 5 AVs will unlock new business models for ride-hailing, robotaxis, freight logistics, mobile retail, and services brought directly to the consumer.

AVs will also be one of the biggest tech races between economic superpowers, with China and the US leading the way. The first to secure a mature AV infrastructure would gain a huge competitive advantage, with global leadership in the automotive industry at stake.

Develop costs are high but the reward may be worth it

Autonomous vehicle technology is still in its commercial infancy, and initial estimates for robotaxis launches have been delayed year after year. Development costs can spiral quickly, while commercial returns are still some time into the future. This has led to ventures from the likes of Ford and Volkswagen being wound down. However, with continued investments from several major players such as Alphabet (Waymo), Amazon (Zoox), and Nvidia, GlobalData forecasts global sales of autonomous vehicles to surpass 500,000 units by 2030.

Setbacks are costly

Cruise, a General Motors (GM) autonomous subsidiary, was one of the leaders in our previous AV report, partly thanks to the sheer volume of autonomous driving data it has gathered in comparison to rivals. However, in October 2023, a Cruise driverless vehicle was involved in an accident with a pedestrian which led to a $1.5 million fine, a suspension of its self-driving permit in California, and the dismissal of nine company executives. In December 2024, it was announced that GM would no longer fund Cruise’s robotaxi development as it instead pivoted to autonomous systems for its personal vehicles. The incident demonstrated how precarious the progress towards Level 4 and 5 autonomy will be.

Leaders and challengers

Hardware:
Leaders: AMD, Huawei, Nvidia, Pony.ai, Qualcomm, Tesla.
Challengers: AutoX, Horizon, Zoox (Amazon).
Software:
Leaders: Apollo (Baidu), DiDi, Intel, Nvidia, Waymo, WeRide.
Challengers: Tesla, Wayve, Zoox (Amazon).
Services:
Leaders: Baidu, DiDi, Grab, Lyft, Uber.
Challengers: Alibaba, Amazon, Tesla.

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the Autonomous Vehicles theme. The detailed value chain comprises three layers: Hardware, Software, Services. Leading and challenging vendors are identified across these segments.
• It identifies automotive challenges, such as technology challenges (ADAS, vision and sensor systems, infrastructure) , public acceptance, commercial sustainability, local and municipal transport policy and social justice and equity on the automotive industry, addressing these challenges.
• Several case studies are included to analyze the multiple ways companies have responded to the impact of this theme’s growth and what they are doing to grow with this theme.

• This report will help you to understand Autonomous Vehicles and its impact on the automotive sector.
• Benchmark your company against your competitors and assess how companies are utilizing Autonomous Vehicles to drive revenues.
• Identify attractive investment targets by understanding which companies are most advanced in the themes that will determine future success in the autonomous vehicles theme.
• Understand key industry challenges and where Autonomous Vehicles use cases are most useful.
• Develop and design your corporate strategies through an in-house expert analysis of Autonomous Vehicles by understanding the primary ways in which this theme is impacting the industry.
• Position yourself for future success by investing in the right Autonomous Vehicle companies.