Automotive Predictions 2024 - Thematic Intelligence
Summary
In this report, we identify the top 10 themes that will impact the automotive industry in 2024. For each theme, we offer a series of predictions, identify winners and losers, and point you to further reading.
We classify our top 10 themes for 2023 into three groups: industry, macroeconomic, and technology. The major themes impacting automotive in 2024 are: Electric vehicles, pricing, disruptors from China, automotive batteries, autonomous vehicles, and shared mobility.The major macroeconomic themes are macroeconomic outlook, geopolitics, and deglobalization.Lastly, artificial intelligence is expected to be a technology theme in 2024.
Scope
This report is a thematic analysis of the top themes in automotive predictions. It provides -
- The major themes impacting the automotive industry
- Whilst most investment research is underpinned by backwards looking company valuation models, GlobalData’s thematic methodology identifies which companies are best placed to succeed in a future filled with multiple disruptive threats
- Our thematic investment research product, supported by our thematic engine, is aimed at senior (C-Suite) executives in the corporate world as well as institutional investors.
- Corporations: helps CEOs in all industries understand the disruptive threats to their competitive landscape.
- Investors: helps fund managers focus their time on the most interesting investment opportunities in global TMT.
- Our unique differentiator, compared to all our rival thematic research houses, is that our thematic engine has a proven track record of predicting winners and losers
- Executive Summary
- Electric Vehicles
- Annual global EV sales will surpass 50 million units by 2028
- China will remain the dominant force in the global EV market in 2024
- Chinese BEV exports to Europe will continue despite an EU investigation
- Competition will increase with more BEV models coming to market
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Refocus on drivers of demand
- Global economic slowdown
- Market recovery is more muted
- Winners and losers
- Geopolitics
- Russia and Ukraine's market recoveries continue
- Further conflicts
- China's relations with the West will remain strained
- Winners and losers
- Pricing
- Transaction prices to moderate in 2024
- Further incentive deployment to offset price hikes
- Market mix maintaining upward pressure on pricing
- Winners and losers
- Disruptors from China
- The gap in the Russian market will continue to be filled by Chinese disruptors
- Chinese share of global EV market will continue to rise
- Growth for disruptor brands from China will be balanced with risks
- Winners and losers
- Automotive Batteries
- Global battery production for battery electric vehicles will exceed 1 TWh in 2024
- LMFP will start to take a significant share of the LFP sector
- Sodium will remain a niche player in the BEV market
- BEV battery pack prices will continue to fall in the short term
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Deglobalization
- The nearshoring trend in the supply chain will increase
- Lessons will be learned from the microchip shortage
- Strategic moves will safeguard the supply of critical parts
- Winners and losers
- Autonomous Vehicles
- Setbacks will inevitably delay the progress of AV development
- M&A trend set to continue
- Transport as a service (TaaS) is likely to be the main driver for AV demand
- China factor
- Winners and losers
- Artificial Intelligence
- Generative AI will impact the automotive industry
- Vehicle design and testing will be supported by AI
- AI will play a bigger role in the driver’s experience
- Vehicle safety and security will be enhanced
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Shared Mobility
- Traditional car ownership will not be swept aside by shared mobility
- Rationalization in the shared mobility space
- Ride-hailing in super-apps on the rise
- Winners and losers
- Further reading
- Glossary
- Further Reading
- GlobalData reports
- Our Thematic Research Methodology
- About GlobalData
- Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Glossary
- Table 2: GlobalData reports
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Electric Vehicles
- Figure 2: Geopolitics
- Figure 3: Pricing
- Figure 4: Disruptors from China
- Figure 5: Automotive Batteries
- Figure 6: Shared Mobility
- Figure 7: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard
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