Alzheimer’s Disease (AD): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033

Alzheimer’s Disease (AD): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033

Summary

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder marked by cognitive and behavioral impairment that significantly interferes with social and occupational functioning. AD is typically characterized by memory loss, cognitive impairment, functional decline, and gradual inability in performing daily tasks independently. Globally, AD is the most common type of dementia, accounting for around 60-80% cases of dementia (Mayo Clinic, 2024; Medscape, 2024). The disease most commonly affects people over the age of 65 years. It is an incurable disease with a long preclinical period and progressive course (Mayo Clinic, 2023; NHS, 2024).

The signs and symptoms of AD vary based on disease severity, with the common symptoms involving a gradual decline in some, most, or all of memory, reasoning and handling of complex tasks, language, understanding visual form and space relationship, behavior, and personality (NHS, 2024). Some patients with memory problems have a condition called mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (Alzheimer’s Association, 2024; John Hopkins Medicine, 2024b). Patients with MCI have more memory problems than normal for their age; however their symptoms do not interfere with their everyday lives (Alzheimer’s Association, 2024). Preclinical AD is the early stage of AD when brain changes occur before the onset of symptoms (Alzheimer’s Association, 2024). Based on disease progression and severity of symptoms, AD is classified as mild in early stage, moderate in middle stage, and severe in late stage disease (John Hopkins Medicine, 2024b). Early-onset AD (EOAD) is an uncommon form of AD that affects younger adults aged younger than 65 years. The condition is also called young-onset AD and accounts for approximately 5-10% of all Alzheimer's cases (Alzheimer’s Association, 2024; John Hopkins Medicine, 2024b). EOAD gradually affects memory, thinking, and behavior, mood changes such as anxiety or agitation, or periods of confusion, eventually affecting daily activities over a span of many years, and hence EOAD is difficult to diagnose (John Hopkins Medicine, 2024a).

There is no single diagnostic test for AD, hence neurologists rule out other similar conditions and thus diagnose AD with about 95% accuracy (Mayo Clinic, 2024; National Institute on Aging, 2024). Since there is no cure or effective treatment for AD, the decision to undergo genetic testing requires careful consideration and counseling with a specialist in genetics (John Hopkins Medicine, 2024b; Mayo Clinic, 2024). The clinical guidelines for diagnosis of AD have been formulated by the National Institutes of Health Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Disorders Association (NIH-ADRDA), the American Psychiatric Association, in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) - fourth edition, and the Consortium to Establish a Registry in Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD). In 2011, the National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer’s Association workgroup released new research and clinical diagnostic criteria for AD (Jack et al., 2011). For this forecast model and report, DSM-IV criteria were applied for diagnosis of AD due to availability of more country-specific literature based on DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. Although currently there is no cure for AD, medicines can temporarily reduce the symptoms (NHS, 2024). There are no proven modalities for prevention of AD, however epidemiological studies have suggested that healthy lifestyles can reduce the risk of AD (Alzheimer’s Society, 2024b; Crump et al., 2024).

In the 8MM, total prevalent cases of AD by DSM-IV criteria are expected to increase from 15,987,619 cases in 2023 to 22,511,761 cases in 2033, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 4.08%. In 2033, China will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of AD by DSM-IV criteria in the 8MM, with 10,400,804 cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest total prevalent cases of AD by DSM-IV criteria with 619,077 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the total prevalent cases of AD by DSM-IV criteria to changes in population dynamics, and the total prevalence rate in each market.

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for AD in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of AD by DSM-IV criteria. The total prevalent cases and the diagnosed prevalent cases of AD are segmented by age (65-69 years, 70-79 years, and 80 years and older) and sex.
• The report also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of MCI segmented by age (65-69 years, 70-79 years, and 80 years and older) and sex. Moreover, the report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of pre-clinical (pre-symptomatic) AD segmented by age (55-59 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and 80 years and older) and sex.

The report also includes the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of AD by severity. Although not covered in this report, total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of EOAD can be found in the model. This epidemiology forecast for AD is supported by data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. GlobalData epidemiologists applied the DSM-IV criteria to diagnose AD patients across the 8MM. Accordingly, the total prevalent cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of AD in the 8MM are based on the latest data available by DSM-IV criteria. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 8MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast total prevalent cases and the diagnosed prevalent cases of AD across these markets.

Reasons to Buy

The Alzheimer’s disease (AD) epidemiology series will allow you to -

• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AD market.
• Quantify patient populations in the global AD market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for AD therapeutics in each of the markets covered.