Small Arms

Global Small Arms Market to Reach US$12.3 Billion by 2030

The global market for Small Arms estimated at US$10.0 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$12.3 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.5% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Rifles, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 3.7% CAGR and reach US$6.9 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Pistols segment is estimated at 3.3% CAGR over the analysis period.

The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$4.8 Billion While China is Forecast to Grow at 5.0% CAGR

The Small Arms market in the U.S. is estimated at US$4.8 Billion in the year 2024. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$1.3 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 5.0% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% and 2.9% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 3.3% CAGR.

Global Small Arms Market - Key Trends and Drivers Summarized

Small arms refer to lightweight, portable firearms that can be operated by individual personnel. These typically include handguns such as pistols and revolvers, shoulder arms like rifles and carbines, and other personal weapons such as shotguns and submachine guns. Small arms are distinct from heavier military artillery and crew-served weapons systems due to their direct use by a single operator. They play crucial roles in a variety of settings, from military and law enforcement scenarios to sporting and personal defense contexts. The effectiveness of small arms is determined not only by their design and manufacturing quality but also by their ease of use, reliability under different conditions, accuracy, and lethality. These weapons are subject to strict regulatory controls in many countries, reflecting their potential impact on public safety.

In the military and law enforcement sectors, the demand for small arms has been consistently robust, driven by the need for modernization of equipment and the regular procurement cycles associated with defense and security operations. Innovations in small arms technologies have included enhancements in firearm ergonomics, recoil reduction, and the integration of electronic and digital systems such as smart scopes and tracking systems. These improvements aim to increase the tactical efficiency of the firearms under a range of operational conditions. Additionally, the civilian market for small arms has seen substantial growth, influenced by rising interest in personal safety and sport shooting. This sector`s expansion is also fueled by the legal frameworks that regulate the ownership and use of firearms, varying significantly from one country to another, thus influencing market dynamics.

The growth in the small arms market is driven by several factors, including geopolitical tensions, national defense modernization programs, and the increasing popularity of shooting sports. Heightened security concerns and global conflicts necessitate continuous updates and replacements of outdated firearms in both military and law enforcement arsenals, fostering a steady demand for new and advanced weaponry. Moreover, technological advancements such as lightweight composite materials for gun bodies and enhanced precision mechanisms contribute significantly to product development and consumer interest. Furthermore, consumer behavior towards enhanced personal security has led to increased firearm purchases among civilians, underpinning market growth.

SCOPE OF STUDY:

The report analyzes the Small Arms market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:

Segments:
Type (Rifles, Pistols, Shotguns, Revolvers, Other Types); End-Use (Military End-Use, Law Enforcement End-Use, Other End-Uses)

Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; USA; Canada; Japan; China; Europe; France; Germany; Italy; UK; Rest of Europe; Asia-Pacific; Rest of World.

Select Competitors (Total 93 Featured) -

• BAE Systems PLC
• General Dynamics Corporation
• BAE Systems, Inc.
• GC Precision Developments Pty Limited
• Browning
• Heckler & Koch GmbH
• Colt`s Manufacturing Company, LLC
• Glock Ges.M.B.H
• Herstal SA
• Daniel Defense, Inc.
• Indumil
• Enjo Sports Inc.
• Barrett Firearms Mfg., Inc.
• Caesar Guerini srl
• Browning International S.A.

TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR

Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.

We are diligently following expert opinions of leading Chief Economists (14,949), Think Tanks (62), Trade & Industry bodies (171) worldwide, as they assess impact and address new market realities for their ecosystems. Experts and economists from every major country are tracked for their opinions on tariffs and how they will impact their countries.

We expect this chaos to play out over the next 2-3 months and a new world order is established with more clarity. We are tracking these developments on a real time basis.

As we release this report, U.S. Trade Representatives are pushing their counterparts in 183 countries for an early closure to bilateral tariff negotiations. Most of the major trading partners also have initiated trade agreements with other key trading nations, outside of those in the works with the United States. We are tracking such secondary fallouts as supply chains shift.

To our valued clients, we say, we have your back. We will present a simplified market reassessment by incorporating these changes!

APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE

Our April release addresses the impact of tariffs on the overall global market and presents market adjustments by geography. Our trajectories are based on historic data and evolving market impacting factors.

JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET

Complimentary Update: Our clients will also receive a complimentary update in July after a final reset is announced between nations. The final updated version incorporates clearly defined Tariff Impact Analyses.

Reciprocal and Bilateral Trade & Tariff Impact Analyses:

USA
CHINA
MEXICO
CANADA
EU
JAPAN
INDIA
176 OTHER COUNTRIES.

Leading Economists - Our knowledge base tracks 14,949 economists including a select group of most influential Chief Economists of nations, think tanks, trade and industry bodies, big enterprises, and domain experts who are sharing views on the fallout of this unprecedented paradigm shift in the global econometric landscape. Most of our 16,491+ reports have incorporated this two-stage release schedule based on milestones.

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