Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States-Last-mile B2C Delivery
Autonomous trucks are the next logical step to overcome logistics bottlenecks and match pace with the rapidly changing freight carriage ecosystem. Unlike human drivers, who must limit their operating hours to remain safe, autonomous systems can operate trucks 24-7, increasing commodity flow in the freight value system. Several leading automotive OEMs have taken the initiative to develop and test their autonomous technologies, while some have invested in emerging technology start-ups.
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines 5 levels of vehicle automation. The higher the level, the higher the transfer of driving responsibility to machines, with L4 and L5 being very high automation. Each segment of transportation has scope for automation. The level of complexity varies, but for journeys ranging in length, from last-mile delivery and utility applications within a city to interstate long-haul transport, automated vehicles can change the transportation landscape.
This report focuses on the last-mile B2C delivery segment, where the product reaches the customer’s location. It can include food and groceries from a neighborhood store or eCommerce parcels from local fulfillment centers. The routes are usually multistop, with deliveries at multiple customer locations in a single trip, and the weight of the goods varies.
The report analyzes application-wise retail sales data in the last-mile B2C delivery segment to calculate the potential total vehicles in operation, catered by Class 1 to 6 commercial vehicles. The total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption within the addressable market (SAAM) are calculated for 2022, 2030, and 2040 by grass root analysis of each metropolitan area and phase-wise segregation of adoption.
Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, 31.4% of the last-mile B2C delivery segment will be catered by autonomous Class 1 to 6 vehicles, and the total autonomous revenue will be approximately $69.98 B.
- Strategic Imperatives
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative 8
- The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Level 4 (L4) Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Industry
- Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine
- Growth Environment
- Levels of Vehicle Automation
- Impact of SAE Definitions
- Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
- Breakdown for Last-mile Delivery Operations
- Delivery Modes in Last-mile B2C-Conventional versus Autonomous
- Autonomous Companies' Testing/Deployment Landscape
- Research Scope
- Research Aims and Objectives
- Autonomous Technology Segmentation
- Growth Drivers
- Growth Restraints
- Growth Metrics
- Forecast Methodology
- Forecast Methodology
- Segment 1-Last-mile B2C Delivery Class 1-6 VIO Forecast
- Total US Retail Sales-All Major Last-mile Segment Applications
- Table Last-mile B2C Delivery Potential for L4 Autonomous Trucks: Retail Sales (Delivery), US, 2022, 2030, and 2040
- Segment Classification #1-Auto Parts & Accessories
- Segment Classification #2-Home Decor & Hardware
- Segment Classification #3-Electronics & Appliances
- Segment Classification #4-Grocery & Other Necessities
- Segment Classification #5-Nonstore Retailer
- Segment Classification #6-Other Merchandise
- Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO
- Total US Retail Sales-All Major Last-mile Segment Applications
- Segment 2-Forecasting Phase-wise Autonomous Readiness of Metropolitan Areas
- Selection of Top 384 Metropolitan Areas for Autonomous Score
- Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Score
- Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Density
- Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Consumption Score
- Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Age Group Score
- Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Regulation Score
- Phase 1 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
- Phase 2 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
- Phase 3 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
- Summary of Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
- Segment 3-Forecast of Total Autonomous CVs in Last-mile B2C Delivery
- Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO-Application-wise Split
- Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery TAAM VIO-Application-wise Split
- Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery SAAM VIO-Application-wise Spilt
- Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery-Revenue Forecast
- Conclusion
- Class 1-6 Autonomous Vehicles in Last-mile B2C Delivery- Units & Revenue Potential
- Key Takeaways
- Last-mile B2C Autonomous Player Profiles
- Udelv
- Gatik
- Robomart*
- Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations
- Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential
- Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions
- Next Steps
- Your Next Steps
- Why Frost, Why Now?
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