Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States: Long Haul & Regional Haul

Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States: Long Haul & Regional Haul

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operation could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but by when and starting where remain key questions.

Frost & Sullivan has scored all long haul and regional haul routes within the United States on key factors such as freight transported, weather, and regulations to determine the phase of autonomous readiness. Based on the scoring of route factors and phase segregation, Frost & Sullivan derived the total addressable autonomous market (TAAM). Potentially 945,775 million ton-miles of long haul routes could be autonomous-ready by 2040, which comprises approximately 44% of the total US freight for that year. By the same year, about 420,905 million ton-miles of regional haul freight movement will have the potential for driverless transport. The total market potential for autonomous-ready freight movement is approximately 1,366,680 million ton-miles. As with any new disruptive technology, the share of autonomous adoption will initially comprise innovators (less than 3%) and early adopters.

By 2040, autonomous trucking adoption will have been growing rapidly and could become the mainstream trucking model thereafter. Revenue potential hinges on factors involving application-specific freight rates, route readiness phase, and autonomous miles travelled. Starting at $1 billion in 2028, revenue potential will rapidly increase in line with the rate of adoption to reach a potential $110 billion in 2040.

In summary, from 0.2% of total US freight being L4 autonomous transported in 2028 to 22.3% in 2040, and with huge revenue potential, autonomous trucks are on route to transform the trucking industry in the next 2 decades.