Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in EU 27: Long Haul-Hub to Hub

Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in EU 27: Long Haul-Hub to Hub
Future TAAM Growth Potential of 1,167btkm with 206K Long-haul Driverless Trucks Operational on the European Ten-Ts by 2040

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operations could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but “by when?” and “starting where?” remain key questions.

In this study, the objective is to derive the total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption in the addressable market (SAAM). To achieve this, Frost & Sullivan has developed a detailed model built bottom-up and consisting of an overlay of the 1154 NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, NUTS) regions and the 9 Ten-Ts (Trans European Transport Network) as the base upon which multiple autonomous factors are applied. Then each of these corridors were applied an autonomous score, based on which they were segregated into three different phases of implementation (Phase 1, 2023–2028; Phase 2, 2029–2034; Phase 3, 2035–2040). Then, the TAAM and SAAM derived (by phase) to understand the total market potential of L4 autonomous trucks in EU over the next two decades.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, ~30,600 kms of road length could be autonomous ready; this covers a total addressable autonomous freight market (TAAM) of ~1,167 billion ton-km and nearly 206k driverless long-haul trucks could be operational on European roads.