Light Commercial Vehicle Sector, Europe, 2024–2032
Strong Decarbonization Measures are Driving Transformational Growth in Electric Vehicles toward Penetration of 60% by 2032
Frost & Sullivan expects the overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. This market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60.0% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023.
The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share.
One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players.
Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs.
Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%.
The study period for this research service is 2023 to 2032.
Key Issues Addressed
What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market?
- Growth Environment— Transformation in European Light Commercial Vehicle Sector
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative 8 TM
- The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Industry
- Growth Environment
- Key Findings
- LCV Sales Volume and Application Share
- LCV Powertrain Split
- Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
- Ecosystem
- Research Scope
- LCV Market Segmentation
- LCV Market Outlook
- Europe—Regional Outlook
- LCV Volumes
- LCV Powertrain Split
- LCV OEM Market Share
- Major LCV Applications
- Key LCV Applications Share
- Key Country Insight
- Country Insight—Germany
- Country Insight—France
- Country Insight—Italy
- Country Insight—Spain
- Country Insight—United Kingdom
- LCV Electrification
- Electrification Use Cases—Pickups
- Electrification Use Cases—Vans
- eLCV Technology Roadmap
- Drivetrain Architecture Mapping—OEMs
- eLCV Models by Vehicle Size
- Electric Platforms of Key OEMs
- Key Metrics for Electric Pickups
- Mileage Range of Electric Vans
- Price Range of Electric Vans
- Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
- Small Electric Vans—Battery Capacity and Motor Power
- Medium Electric Vans—Battery Capacity and Motor Power
- Large Electric Vans—Battery Capacity and Motor Power
- Key eLCV Launches
- EV Incentives—Select Countries
- Volumes Forecast
- Volume Forecast by Segment
- Table LCV Market: Volume Forecast by Segment, Europe, 2023–2032
- Powertrain Share Forecast
- Table LCV Market: Powertrain Share Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032
- Electric Powertrain Share Forecast
- Table LCV Market: Electric Powertrain Share Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032
- Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
- Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
- COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
- LCV Future Outlook by Body Style
- Volume Forecast by Segment
- TCO Analysis
- TCO Analysis—Key Assumptions
- Large Vans—TCO Share and per Mile Cost
- Large Vans—Payback Period
- Large Vans—TCO Components
- Small Vans—TCO Share and per Mile Cost
- Small Vans—Payback Period
- Small Vans—TCO Components
- Growth Opportunity Universe in Light Commercial Vehicle Sector
- Growth Opportunity 1—Challenging Macro-economic Conditions
- Growth Opportunity 2—Pickups to Compensate for Decline in Cab-over-Engine (COE) Trucks
- Growth Opportunity 3—Growing Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem
- Best Practices Recognition
- Frost Radar
- Next Steps
- Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
- Next Steps
Research Assistance
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